Watch May Be Issued Soon For NE Louisiana & South-Central Mississippi

This is the latest Mesoscale discussion from the Storm Prediction Center that is concerning the possible need of a severe weather watch for portions of southern and central portions of Mississippi and northeastern Louisiana…

SUMMARY…
At least an isolated severe threat will continue this evening with thunderstorms along the cold front. If storms continue to increase in coverage and intensity, watch issuance is possible.

CURRENT WATCH PROBABILITY…
40%

DISCUSSION…
A small cluster of storms across north-central LA has intensified over the last 30 minutes. This convection has developed along an eastward-moving cold front. The environment remains relatively warm/moist ahead of the front, and 7:00 pm soundings from Lake Charles/New Orleans/Jackson depict weak-to-moderate instability and more than sufficient deep-layer flow/shear for storm organization. These soundings also depict a capping inversion just below 700 MB, suggesting that forced ascent along the cold front will continue to be necessary for storm initiation and maintenance.

With the primary large-scale ascent expected to remain north of the region, the magnitude and longevity of the severe threat across northeast LA into southern MS remain uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if convection continues to increase in coverage and intensity. Regardless of watch issuance, at least isolated instances of severe hail/wind will be possible for at least a few hours this evening.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather