Summer-Like Weather

| September 23, 2009 @ 5:56 am | 2 Replies

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SUMMER OR FALL? Today is the first full day of fall, but it will feel more like summer across Alabama and the Deep South. Temperatures today, tomorrow, and Friday will rise into the mid to upper 80s, and dewpoints will stay around 70 degrees, making the muggy factor very high. And, in this kind of environment, scattered showers and storms are possible. The most numerous ones should be over the western third of the state, back into Mississippi, closer to an upper low that is spinning away over the Great Plains. Showers and storms over East Alabama will be more widely separated.

THE WEEKEND: The upper low will open up and move toward the Great Lakes over the weekend; this will bring better dynamic lift to Alabama on Saturday, and accordingly we expect to see an increase in the number of showers and storms as we begin the weekend. The 00Z GFS is a little weaker with the upper trough, and SPC for now has eliminated the severe weather risk from their Saturday outlook. But, a few strong storms will certainly be possible, and rain could be heavy in spots, giving concern to the potential for more flooding issues. You will need the rain gear again for the college football games in the state Saturday.

With the slightly weaker trough, the GFS is also a little slower in getting dry air into Alabama Sunday. Looks like we will need to hang on to a chance of showers and storms at least Sunday morning.

NEXT WEEK: Dry air finally takes over for at least the first half of next week. A secondary front will pass through the state Monday; most of the moisture will be long gone, and we will mention only a small risk of a shower. Then, dry air is the story Tuesday and Wednesday; we expect sunny days, clear nights, and lower humidity levels. The 00Z GFS isn’t quite a cool, but still seems like a good chance we will get the lows down into the 50s at least on one morning.

LONG RANGE: Still no sign of our first good front of the fall season through October 8. It will get here, but it will come late this year as the Polar jet remains north of Alabama. And, still no sign of any tropical trouble. This has been a very benign hurricane season.

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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