Midday Nowcast: Hot and Humid, Watching the Radar

TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Hot and humid weather persist across the state with daily showers and storms in the forecast through the weekend. The days will continue to feature a mix of sun and clouds; afternoon temperatures will be the low 90s and heat index values are over 100°.

Of course, there is heat relief daily, in the form of scattered showers and storms meandering about the Alabama landscape. And as we have seen in recent days, some storms will be strong and locally severe at times with gusty winds, tremendous amounts of lightning, and window shaking thunder. Also, torrential tropical downpours are occurring and have and could cause areas isolated flash flooding. Again, these storms are completely random, and you just have to watch radar trends when they start developing. Approaching the midday hours, a few showers are developing across East and Southwest Alabama, and these will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon hours.

Most of the showers and storms will come from 12PM-10PM daily with the odds of any one spot getting wet reach day are in the 35-55 percent range. Coverage of showers and storms could be a little higher by Sunday, especially over the southeast part of the state, as deeper tropical moisture spreads northward in association with Fred

SPEAKING OF FRED: Latest update from NHC: The center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 74.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph, and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or two. A turn to the northwest is expected by Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move near the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical-storm strength during that time. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

For now the system is expected to remain below hurricane strength in the Gulf due to interaction with the Florida peninsula and southwest winds aloft creating shear over the system. The main wind, rain, and storm surge impact will be east of the circulation center, over the Florida peninsula and North Florida. Most of the Florida panhandle and the Alabama Gulf coast should remain on the “good”, drier, west side of the system (places like Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola, Navarre Beach, Destin, and Panama City Beach). However, in those places the rip current danger will be high Sunday and Monday, and there will be some rain.

The heaviest rain in association with Fred is expected to be east of Alabama, over the Florida peninsula, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Still, deeper tropical moisture will be pulled into the state with higher rain coverage Sunday into early next week for much of Alabama. Remember this forecast CAN, and will likely change some of the coming days, so pay attention to any updates.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a tropical wave located about 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.This will likely become Grace.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in visiting.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 117F at Death Valley, CA. The lowest observation was 25F at Peter Sinks, UT.

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