7 am Advisory — Ida Still Strengthening & May Be a Cat. 5 Hurricane at Landfall

SUMMARY OF 7 AM CDT INFORMATION
LOCATION…28.5N 89.6W
ABOUT 50 MI…85 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF HOUMA, LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City, Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

FORECAST DISCUSSION
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 89.6 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight and early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday afternoon. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will make landfall along the coast of southeastern Louisiana within the hurricane warning area late this morning or early this afternoon. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot’s Station East near Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust to 113 mph (181 km/h). Another NOAA elevated C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently reported a sustained wind of 92 mph (148 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 933 mb (27.55 inches).

KEY MESSAGES

1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is imminent somewhere within the area from Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida moves onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds are expected today within the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi today through early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida will produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, to far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.

HAZARDS TO LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

* Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…12-16 ft
* Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…8-12 ft
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne…8-12 ft
* Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA…6-9 ft
* Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS…6-9 ft
* Lake Pontchartrain…5-8 ft
* Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border…4-7 ft
* Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion Bay…4-6 ft
* Lake Maurepas…4-6 ft
* Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…2-4 ft
* MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…3-5 ft
* Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA…1-3 ft
* AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay…1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida moves onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning by later this morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the southeast Louisiana coast this morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later today into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches, are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast early Monday and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals:

* Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning.
* Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, tonight through Monday night.
* Middle Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash and riverine flooding.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday from southeast Louisiana across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical