Tropical Storm Julian Forms Over the Central Subtropic Atlantic; Rest of Tropics Remain Busy

We now have five areas of interest on the board out in the tropics ranging from a category 4 hurricane (Ida), to a newly formed Tropical Storm Julian, to a tropical depression (TD-10), and to two separate areas that may form into tropical cyclones in the near future. You already know about Ida… Here is the rest of the Tropical Update:

Tropical Storm Julian

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…35.1N 46.8W
ABOUT 865 MI…1390 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1115 MI…1795 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julian was located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 46.8 West. Julian is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast and then north over the North Atlantic is expected through Tuesday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated through tonight. Weakening should begin on Monday, with Julian likely becoming post-tropical by Monday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

Tropical Depression Ten

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…18.8N 50.2W
ABOUT 770 MI…1240 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 50.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the north or north-northeast at a slower forward speed is expected through Wednesday, keeping the depression over the central Atlantic during the upcoming week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, but the depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

West Africa

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of West Africa by Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form toward the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

US East Coast

A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Delmarva Peninsula is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the warm Gulf Stream waters. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some slow development over the next few days as this system drifts southeastward and then eastward, moving away from the east coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical