Hot Afternoons, Generally Dry Through The Weekend

DOG DAYS: An upper ridge will build across the Deep South this week, setting the state for a hot and mostly dry forecast through the weekend. It is a simply forecast… mostly sunny days and fair nights with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. A few isolated afternoon storms could show up by Friday and the weekend, but the chance of any one spot getting wet is only 5-10 percent each day.

Not much change is expected for the first half of next week… there is some evidence the ridge weakens a bit in 7-10 days with the return of scattered showers and thunderstorms by then. Highs will stay in the 90s… See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A tropical wave (Invest 95L) located just east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms while moving quickly westward. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or two before it moves into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds. Even though development is unlikely, locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or so. Chance of development is only 10 percent.

Also, a weak trough of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward towards the southeastern U.S. coast later this week and into the weekend. NHC gives this only a 20 percent chance of development over the next seven days.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet, and there are no tropical systems near the Gulf of Mexico.

RAIN UPDATE: Here are rain totals for the year so far, and the departure from average…

Mobile 37.63″ (-1.59″)
Tuscaloosa 36.51″ (+4.69″)
Anniston 34.91″ (+2.80″)
Montgomery 32.36″ (+1.65″)
Birmingham 32.24 (-2.43″)
Dothan 31.82″ (+0.15″)
Huntsville 29.68″ (-3.03″)
Muscle Shoals 28.98″ (-3.89″)

ON THIS DATE IN 1936: Lincoln, Nebraska saw an all-time high temperature of 115 degrees. The low only dropped to 91 degrees and the average temperature was 103. Many people spent the night sleeping outside to escape the heat.

ON THIS DATE IN 2005: The citizens of Sand Point, Alaska saw a rare tornado touchdown on two uninhabited islands. Sand Point is part of the Aleutian Chain and is located about 570 miles southwest of Anchorage.

ON THIS DATE IN 2020: Hurricane Hanna, the 2020 Atlantic season’s first Hurricane, made landfall in South Texas along the unpopulated Padre Island National Seashore, carrying sustained 90 mph winds with gusts over 100 mph in a small portion of the inner eye wall.

Look for the next video briefing here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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