Flash Flood Watch Until 6 p.m. Monday

NWS offices across the Southeast have issued flood watches for parts of Central Alabama, northern Georgia, northwestern South Carolina, and western North Carolina.

Morning model output is showing between one and two inches of rainfall across North and Central ALabama through Monday evening. Grounds are fairly saturated from early morning rainfall and flooding is possible along creeks and streams, and in urban and low lying areas that have poor drainage.

Precipitable water values on the 12z BMX sounding were 1.40 inches, which is near the max for this time of year in Central Alabama. The record PW value for February11 at BMX is 1.65 inches. This means there is lots of moisture available for heavy rainfall.

Looking back to the west, we see severe thunderstorm and tornado watches over northern Louisiana and southeastern Texas.

Severe storms are moving through northern Louisiana at this hour. These storms are elevated supercells that have produced large hail in northwestern Louisiana, but they have weakened in the past hour. The SPC puts the chance of a severe thunderstorm watch for northern Louisiana at 40 percent in the short term.

There have been a couple of tornado warning sin southeastern Texas, but they have expired of have been canceled.

Broad surface low pressure is over the Texas Coastal Plain late this morning. A warm front lies over Central Louisiana and southern Mississippi into South Alabama. This warm front will be the focus for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon. Alabama will enjoy a break through the early afternoon, with storms developing again over Louisiana around 2 p.m., firing into southern Mississippi around 3-4 p.m. and into Alabama around 6-7 p.m. They will continue through midnight.

It looks like there could be an early wave of storms starting over Southwest Alabama starting as early as 2 p.m. that will move northeast across the southern part of the state. We will be watching those as well.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather