Update for the Early Morning Hours

A large mass of rain with thunderstorms along its leading edge extends from near Pine Bluff, AR to near Holly Springs, MS, to near Selmer, TN, to Columbia, TN south of Nashville.

This area of precipitation is pushing southeastward at 15-20 mph late tonight.

There have been no warnings along this line in the past hour.

There is a solitary severe thunderstorm warning for northern Jackson County, Alabama at this hour. This storm still shows indications of severe hail (1″ in diameter). It will move entirely out of Alabama in the next 90 mins.

The area of rain and storms will drop southeastward into Northwest Alabama after 2 a.m. It appears there will be sufficient instability (around 1,000 joules/kg) and sufficient bulk shear (around 45 knots) to support the potential for a stronger storm or two to become severe with damaging wind gusts of 60 mph and the possibility of 1 inch hail. But we could get through the rest of the night without any warnings.

The storms will reach Marion, Winston, and Cullman Counties about 6-630 a.m. Expect them into Jasper by 7 a.m., Tuscaloosa and Birmingham by 8 a.m., and Gadsden around 7, Anniston around 830 a.m. CAPEs are forecast to be around 1,250 joules/KG. Those instability values may increase through the morning hours, especially over West Alabama, and the storms may intensify with some producing damaging winds and hail. Those values could increase to 2,000-2,500 joules/KG over Southwest Alabama after noon. The storms will weaken though as they approach the Gulf Coast.

Another round of rain and storms will move across South Alabama Friday night, with the northern portion of the rain shield extending up into Central Alabama. But no storms are expected in this part of the state.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather