Ernesto is NOW a Hurricane

Image from Tropical Tidbits.

Breaking down the latest on Ernesto in this post.  As of 11am AST, the NHC reports Ernesto is now a hurricane with max winds at 75 mph.  This is reported by the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters.  Pressure is at 991 mb which is down 5 mb from the 5am AST advisory.  Ernesto is centered about 175 mile northwest of San Juan Puerto Rico.

Heavy rain has set up across the US and British Virgin Islands along with Puerto Rico. Per the NWS San Juan, PR, portions of eastern Puerto Rico have seen up to 10 inches of rain.  Rainfall rates have exceeded 1.5 inches in an hour at times. Another 4-6 inches of rain possible for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Seeing reports at this hour that all of St. Thomas and St. John are without power.

It’s absolutely dumping rain in St. John USVI as the bands from Ernesto continue to impact the region.

Thanks to @TyphoonMr for the video.@foxweather pic.twitter.com/oJkYpbhe61

— Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) August 14, 2024

So what’s next with Ernesto?

• Movement:  The hurricane is moving to the northwest but is forecast to turn north-northwest and then to the north later today.  A deep layer trough over the US is helping this nudge northward.  It will be on a steady pace until the trough loses its influence then Ernesto is forecast to slow down through the weekend while passing Bermuda.  After that, another trough should help shove the hurricane along.
• The track:  The official track has shifted slightly westward due to the current movement of Ernesto. The models are consistent in the track over the next 48 hours and then diverge a bit.  The official track brings Hurricane Ernesto near Bermuda Saturday AM with max winds at 105 mph.  From there, the storm will head north and then northeast.  Atlantic Canada is now in the forecast cone.  The computer models are not consistent on the latter part of the track and so there could be impacts in this area.
• Bermuda:  Residents and visitors to the island should be ready to make plans now to prepare for Ernesto.  A hurricane watch may be hoisted later today.
• US:  Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore but swells from the storm will be far reaching.  Beach goers should be aware of the dangers of rip currents and high surf.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical