Bring On The Warm-Up

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IMPROVING WEATHER: We begin the day with low clouds and some dense fog across the state, but that should give way to sunshine later this morning, allowing a nice warming trend to begin. Most spots will rise into the mid to upper 60s today. Tomorrow will be even warmer, with ample sunshine and a high in the mid 70s.

NEXT RAIN: Clouds will increase Thursday ahead of the next short wave, and the latest GFS hints some rain could move into West Alabama Thursday afternoon. We will forecast a good chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm Thursday night, as the short wave moves through. SPC has low end (5 percent) severe weather probabilities for West Alabama with this system, but dynamics look pretty marginal for now. The system is moving into Southern California this morning, so it will be in the American upper air network today, so future model runs will perhaps have a little better handle on it.

Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 00Z GFS now moves the rain out during the pre-dawn hours, and leaves much of the state dry on Friday with a high in the mid to upper 60s. If the 12Z GFS looks like this, we can remove that chance of showers on Friday.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday looks like a great day, with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the low 70s. However, the next upper trough will bring a chance of showers on Sunday. This rather deep upper trough will be just east of the state Monday, and don’t be surprised if Monday of next week will be mostly cloudy and sharply colder. Not as cold as yesterday, but considerably colder than that the GFS MOS is showing.

LONG RANGE: The good news is that we don’t see any serious severe weather setup through the first week of April, but the weather will stay changeable with occasional rain events.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a few episode tonight; it will be posted by 11:00 p.m.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

This morning I will be at Gardendale’s First Baptist Church speaking to the kids in their Early Learning Center… I will have the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

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