Severe Thunderstorm Potential Across Southern Alabama, the Western Florida Panhandle, and Far Eastern Mississippi — Watch Possible

Scattered thunderstorms are developing this evening across southwest Alabama into far southeastern Mississippi as a cold front advances eastward. Conditions ahead of the front have become more favorable for storm intensification, with breaks in cloud cover allowing surface temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s. This heating is contributing to moderate instability, with MLCAPE values (Mixed-Layer Convective Available Potential Energy, a measure of the buoyancy available for storm development) estimated between 1000 and 1500 J/kg and only minimal convective inhibition.

Wind profiles from regional velocity data indicate fairly straight hodographs with 0–6 km bulk wind difference values around 40 to 45 knots, supportive of rotating updrafts and the potential for supercell structures. These storms may be capable of producing large hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter. However, radar trends suggest a high rate of new storm development, which may lead to frequent cell mergers and storm interactions. This could limit the ability of individual storms to remain discrete and fully intensify.

As the evening progresses, further storm clustering along the cold front is expected. This could enhance the damaging wind threat, particularly across southeast Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle. Convective trends will be closely monitored, and a watch may be issued if storm coverage becomes more organized and widespread.

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