Barry Forms: Heavy Rains, Gusty Winds, and Flash Flood Concerns

BARRY BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
The National Hurricane Center officially upgraded Tropical Depression Two to Tropical Storm Barry this morning based on fresh data from an Air Force reconnaissance mission, which confirmed sustained winds of 40 mph and a more organized circulation. The center of Barry is located about 90 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico, drifting northwest at 6 mph. While the system remains disorganized due to strong wind shear, bursts of convection continue, and some slight strengthening is possible before landfall late tonight.

LANDFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST
Barry is being steered northwest by a low- to mid-level ridge over the central Gulf and is on track to make landfall along the eastern Mexico coast by tonight, most likely between Tecolutla and Boca de Catan, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. The strongest winds are expected on the north side of the center along the coast, but the main story remains the rain. With warm Gulf waters and a moist atmosphere, Barry could briefly strengthen a bit more, but it will quickly weaken after crossing the coastline and will dissipate over the rugged terrain of central Mexico by Monday night.

FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE THREAT LOOMS LARGE
The greatest hazard from Barry will be torrential rainfall. Forecast totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely, with isolated pockets up to 10 inches across the mountainous terrain of Veracruz, San Luis Potosí, and Tamaulipas. This much rain, falling over steep slopes and already saturated soils, will raise the risk for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in upslope regions. Travel and power disruptions are possible in rural communities affected by high rainfall totals and gusty winds.

NO U.S. IMPACT EXPECTED, BUT STAY WEATHER-AWARE
Barry is not expected to impact the United States, and the system will remain well south of the Gulf Coast. However, as is often the case with Bay of Campeche systems, development can happen quickly, and even weak storms can pack a flooding punch. Barry is a reminder that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now in motion, and now is the time to ensure your hurricane preparedness plans are up to date—especially with a separate potential development area being monitored later this week near the northern Gulf Coast.

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