Front Stalls Just To The South

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Sure is nice to be out of the summer doldrums and back into a time of the year with dynamic weather changes…

Here is a quick look at dewpoints across Alabama at 5:00 a.m.:

Muscle Shoals 60
Birmingham 66
Montgomery 71
Mobile 70

Looks like front number one is coming to a halt somewhere around Jim’s Pit BBQ in Billingsley this morning. This means most all of the showers today will be south of Clanton; the northern counties will enjoy a dry day with lower humidity levels and a decent amount of sunshine after the morning fog burns off. Highs today will be in the mid 80s in most communities.

Front number one is the leading edge of some very chilly air up north… some 5:00 a.m. temps include:

Longville, Minnesota 28
Spencer, Iowa 36
Kirksville, Missouri 44
Jackson, Tennessee 54

BENEFICIAL RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: Front number one dissipates, and moist air will move northward tonight, and we will bring back the chance of showers and thunderstorms statewide. And, on Friday, front number two approaches with another increase in showers and thunderstorms. There is a very real chance that the tropical disturbance just off the Texas coast will feed deep moisture into Alabama ahead of the front, and if that happens rainfall amounts of one to two inches will be likely statewide. Without the tropical feed, totals of one-half to one inch are more likely. (see more on the tropical action below)

The GFS is a little faster on the 00Z run, so there is some hope the rain will be over in time for high school football games Friday night, but I still think for now we need to leave the chance of rain in until midnight.

BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND: Front number two will push all the way down to the Gulf coast by Saturday morning, and cooler and drier air will rush into our state, setting the stage for a fine fall weekend. The weekend will feature lots of sunshine, low humidity, a fresh north breeze, and cool nights. The 00Z GFS MOS is showing 58 for Birmingham early Sunday morning, and that is also the same number are are using in our public forecast package. The cooler valleys will be close to 50 degrees… and you have to wonder if Valley Head will reach 48 or 49 early Sunday. Welcome to fall!

TROPICS: This system in the Atlantic, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, sure looks like Tropical Storm Humberto as I write this. I am sure NHC will initiate advisories later this morning. The models move Humberto to the northwest rather slowly in coming days, and by late in the weekend it should be somewhere northeast of Puerto Rico. At that point, it will either recurve into the open Atlantic, or be forced back to the west, in the direction of the Southeast U.S. coast. The GFS and the ECMWF really don’t pick this thing up at this time; we will have to watch it closely, however.

And, the big mass of storms in the western Gulf of Mexico seems to trying to get its act together. Steering currents are weak, but it is drifting slowly to the west, and it has the potential to produce flooding rains along the upper Texas coast through Friday (even if it does not get a name). Also, there is a very chance that some of this deep moisture will advect northeast, along our advancing front on Friday, helping to set up a very significant rain event for Alabama. Just what the doctor ordered.

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I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 3:30 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!

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