Rain Just Ahead

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Today should be another beautiful warm October day before we get some much needed rain. The large upper low to our west is beginning to kick out and with it a number of small short waves will be traversing the area bringing enhanced rain chances with them. One is rotating across the Ohio River region this morning which misses us for rain but will bring a few clouds. The second one comes later tonight and into early Monday which should set the stage for an overnight rain event.

We should see clouds thicken up during the afternoon, but I think the rain chances will hold off until after dark. Some of the storms could be severe with the western half of the state under a slight risk for severe storms posted on Day 1 by the SPC folks. Severe weather is likely to be rather isolated, and while the large scale forcing is somewhat limited, there is still potential for supercells with hail being the greatest severe weather threat. Isolated tornadoes remain a possibility especially to our west. Remember, though, late October begins our Fall severe weather season which usually lasts until about the middle of December.

The upper flow becomes nearly parallel to the front, so there will be little push to get the front through here immediately. It hangs up over the area through Wednesday which means daily chances for scattered storms. By Thursday, the surface low and upper low finally push far enough to get the front through Central Alabama. So I think Thursday will be a transition day with chances for rain diminishing as the day wears on. We should probably see some clearing by late afternoon.

With the upper low moving on, the ridge builds back into the area bringing us a beautiful, cooler, drier Friday and Saturday. Sunday will probably be dry, too, but another frontal system could be poised to bring a round of rain our way very late Sunday and into Monday.

Rainfall amounts will generally be around an inch but with the nature of isolated storms, some spots could see as much as 2 inches of rain.

Tropics are still active with the focus on Richard which is approaching Central America and Belize. Richard is likely to become a hurricane before making landfall following relatively rapid intensification yesterday and early today. The track of Richard continue to be into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, but due to the front moving through the area at mid-week, I do not believe Richard will be a threat to the northern Gulf coast. Another area of disturbed weather way out in the Atlantic does not show any immediate signs of becoming a tropical storm.

The overall weather pattern remains active as we head into November. The long range GFS suggests a series of troughs with rain events about every 4 days or so. That would be great since we’ve had such a dry spell in September and October.

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If you have an interest in being a storm spotter, or you already are a storm spotter and need to refresh your spotting skills, be sure to mark your calendar for November 13th. ABC 3340 will be holding their annual spotter training event at the BJCC in conjunction with the Alabama International Auto Show. The event will occur from 9 am to 2 pm and I hope to see you there. Mr. Spann will be back in the saddle bright and early Monday morning with the next Weather Extreme Video. Make it a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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