Rain Ahead for Monday & Tuesday

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Isolated rain showers this morning in Alabama are about all that is left of the front which moved into the state during the overnight hours. Most of those showers will be over by noon and we are likely to see some sun and stay dry for the afternoon. The main trough remained to our west this morning, while a strong short wave had zipped northward into the Great Lakes area. As the trough to our west moves closer we’ll see the development of a surface low in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico which will bring clouds and rain to much of the Southeast Monday and Tuesday. The GFS is now projecting the surface low to move across North Alabama on Tuesday extending the rain event into much of Tuesday. The rainfall from this event should produce widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches with up to 3 inches possible for some spots. I do not believe that there will be a flood threat since we have been dry for over a week.

Because the low is projected to move further north, severe weather becomes a possible issue perhaps as far north as Birmingham. SPC currently is not forecasting any slight risk areas, but with the warm sector potentially as far north as Central Alabama, we will need to watch how the overall conditions change and at least be aware of a small potential for isolated severe storms on Tuesday.

By Wednesday, the trough slips by and the surface low moves quickly into New York bringing at end to the rain and clouds. With a cool northwesterly flow, we should see lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s for the end of the week along with highs primarily in the lower 60s.

With the surface high migrating slowly across the Southeast US, we should stay dry into the weekend. By the end of the weekend, the upper air pattern is becoming more southwesterly which suggests increased moisture as well as a warm up. We’ll need to be watching for another round of wet weather into next week.

In fact, looking out into voodoo with a particular focus on Thanksgiving Day, it now appears turkey day could be wet with a fairly strong short wave coming out of the southern Rockies. And by the end of November, the GFS is suggesting a moderately deep trough over the eastern US which would bring colder weather our way. But that is far out in voodoo country.

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A very special thanks to all of the folks who came out for Storm Alert Xtreme at the BJCC yesterday. We really had a packed house and it is always a pleasure to get together with other weather enthusiasts. James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing tomorrow morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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