Warm Weather Rolls Along

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The warm weather of late November continues to roll along with several more days of warmer than usual weather. In fact, temperatures for the next several days are expected to be about 10 degrees above the typical values for late November. We ought to be somewhere in the lower 60s but are likely to be in the lower 70s. Lows will be doing a similar act with low typically around 40 but by Tuesday we could see lows in the middle and upper 50s.

This morning some folks woke up to rather chilly temperatures – in the 30s – while others woke up to values only around 50. The culprit this morning was the cloud cover which made into places like Tuscaloosa and Birmingham but not places like Gadsden and Fort Payne. This kind of situation reminds us that Central Alabama is not a one number place and small differences like the cloud cover can result in big differences to the weather we experience from one place to another.

With lots of sunshine today as the morning clouds burn off, we should see temperatures climb toward the 70-degree mark for our highs. If you are headed out to any of the football games, UAB hosts Memphis at Legion Field with a 3:00 kickoff; the sky will be sunny with a temperature near 70 at kickoff, dropping to near 60 by the end of the game. Samford hosts The Citadel at 1:00 pm with lots of sunshine and temperatures in the 67 to 70 degree range during the game. Jacksonville State will be in Cookville, Tennessee, to take on Tennessee Tech (4:00 kickoff)… the sky will be clear with temperatures falling from near 65 at kickoff to around 52 by the end of the game.

Looks like morning clouds could be an issue for each of the next several mornings as the surface high moves off into the Atlantic allowing a southeast flow and perhaps some additional moisture. The GFS paints some isolated showers Monday, but I think we remain essentially dry. Warmth continues on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70s.

The warmth is due in part to a southwesterly flow aloft which will also stream moisture from the Pacific in our direction. The surface map will continue to show a surface front hanging off to our north for much of the upcoming week – until the end of the week. With the front parallel to the upper flow it is not going to make much progress as it remains essentially stalled just to the northwest of us – perhaps as close as the northwest corner of the state. Thursday – Turkey Day – a kicker is forecast to move things along with a deeper trough over the eastern US that will push the front through here. There are model differences, so we’ll be watching the timing of the front, but right now it appears that the front comes through on Thanksgiving Day with a cloudy, rainy day and temperatures holding in the 50s. As the upper flow goes northwesterly on Friday, we see the clouds depart and cold air arrives with another round of potentially freezing temperatures.

Rainfall for the next 5 days is expected to remain to our north and northwest with 1 to 2 inches in a band along the front. When the front does come through, I would expect to see another fairly widespread 1-inch rain event for Central Alabama to add to what we say a few days ago.

I am concerned that the GFS may not yet have a good handle on the cold. Some of these situation can be rather shallow with the cold air, and we know the GFS has a poor track record with that scenario. So the pattern will deserve close scrutiny for the next several days as the system shapes up. Scroll down for a great discussion on the cold air possibility from Dr. Coleman.

Assuming the front does migrate through on Thursday, we clear out on Friday and Saturday and chill down! This will make a great set of shopping days to kick off the gift giving season.

Voodoo country continued to show an active flow with another system around the first of December followed by what could be another round of cold air on the 4th. Certainly interesting trends to be watching as the official start to winter nears.

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I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 7:30 tomorrow morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather