Dry and Cold Sums It Up

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As the headline notes, dry and cold sums it up for the next week or so. Clouds along with a few sprinkles occurred across Central Alabama yesterday, but temperatures climbed nicely even with the clouds as most places got into the lower and middle 60s. But it doesn’t look like we’ll see anything nearly that high for at least a week – perhaps much longer – as the gates to the frigid north will be wide open for the foreseeable future.

Today will be somewhat brisk with a strong northwesterly wind prompting a wind advisory for Central Alabama. That wind will be ushering in cold air so do not expect to see the afternoon highs climb much above the lower 40s – that’s about 20 degrees colder than the highs yesterday.

The upper flow remains northwesterly with a fairly high amplitude trough over the eastern US. This keeps a strong northwesterly flow regime in place which will be reinforced with a short wave on Monday. I do expect Tuesday and Wednesday to be our coldest days since about February 13th! Morning lows will get mighty close to the 20 degree mark with some colder spots getting into the teens. It’s a toss up right now as to which morning will be the coldest. Tuesday morning will probably see some light wind while Wednesday morning could be nearly calm. In either case, it appears likely that there will be a hard freeze each day. Afternoon highs will stay in the 40s through mid-week.

Slight moderation in the northwesterly flow will produce slightly warmer temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend. The GFS, as it did yesterday, brings a strong short wave through the flow from the Texas Panhandle to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday and Wednesday. The atmosphere appears too dry for anything other than a few clouds, but I am always wary when a short wave comes across the Gulf Coast with cold air in place. I think the GFS has the right idea, but I certainly will keep an eye on future runs.

Looks like a nice weekend ahead with lows getting above freezing – but still in the 30s – with highs finally back into the 50s.

Then comes some interesting mischief! A strong short wave on Saturday in the North Central US digs into the Southeast on Sunday. This could generate a surface low along the Gulf Coast with the cold air in place. The GFS suggests that the surface low will zip from Georgia to off the New York coast by Monday with the potential for a significant winter storm for the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. If the GFS has the strength of the storm pegged right, we could easily see some wrap around moisture with snow flurries or snow showers in Alabama on Monday. I know this verges on voodoo country, so we may see a big change in the next model run, however, this has shown some consistency from the 18Z run yesterday. It’s still a ways out there, so we have plenty of time to refine the forecast and see how it all evolves.

Looking even further out, the GFS continues the cold pattern for the eastern half of the country.

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What a great time I had emceeing the Helena Christmas Parade – the 40th annual event! It was truly an honor to be there and see all the various cars, floats, marching bands, dancers, twirlers, and others moving along the street which was edged with a great crowd. Special thanks to Joy Childers for allowing me to step in to fill the emcee tasks. I’m already looking forward to the parade next year. And speaking of year, where has 2010 gone? Wow, seems like just yesterday I was finally getting the hang of writing 2010 on things – now I’ll have to be re-trained all over again. As JB Elliott says, “Life goes on!” And James Spann will be going on again tomorrow with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Stay warm and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather