Wait Almost Over ! !

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One of the hardest parts of being a meteorologist is making a forecast and then waiting for the event to occur. I hate the waiting part! But the wait is almost over as the storm system is taking shape. As James has noted on many occasions, now we need to look out the window at what is happening.

A quick look at radar this morning reveals that something is happening. Rain has broken out across a large chunk of Texas as the surface low takes shape in response to the upper level short wave moving out of the four corners area of the southern Rockies. This surface low is forecast to move nearly due east along the Gulf coast. This allows the development of overrunning precipitation as the low taps into the Gulf moisture. In fact, clouds have already spread across much of Alabama with the whole state immersed in clouds by noon time.

A peek at temperatures shows mostly 20s across Central Alabama with teens in the Tennessee River Valley. We won’t see a great deal of warming today with highs only into the mid 30s. As the surface low moves eastward, precipitation will spread from the southwest across much of Alabama. Winter Storm Warnings or advisories are in effect for much of the state except the southwestern counties for the evening and overnight hours.

For us in Central Alabama, I expect the precipitation to begin arriving by mid afternoon and spread over the area. By 7 or 8 pm, precipitation should be occurring across much of the area. Initially there may be a window for some sleet or light freezing rain before it switches to all snow. Fortunately, this window appears brief so I do not expect any serious icing issues as the precipitation gets underway.

Snow should fall for much of the night and into Monday morning. Snowfall amounts are depicted in the video graphics. Generally 1 to 7 inches in the area from about Calera to the Alabama-Tennessee line with 1 to 2 inches from Calera down to just south of Montgomery. But this is where it gets complicated. As Dr. Tim pointed out in a post below, a strong 850 millibar jet could create a significant warm layer between 900 and 750 millibars. Model soundings for Monday morning depict this quite well. This means that after snowing all night, some time close to day break or a little before the precipitation could change over to freezing rain. As the low weakens, freezing rain could continue until noon time or early afternoon. This means ice accumulations of one quarter to one half inch in a large area from Montgomery to Birmingham. Icing means travel problems along with potential for power outages.

As the upper short wave and the surface low weaken, the precipitation should taper off from the west during the late morning and into the afternoon hours. With clouds remaining, some light freezing drizzle or snow flurries will be possible into Tuesday.

From Tuesday to Friday it will remain cold with a long wave trough pretty much anchored over the eastern half of the country. I’m not expecting the thermometer to get into the 40s until next Saturday!

Further out, the GFS suggests a continuation of cold conditions and a series of short waves, so the pattern remains active.

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Be sure to take this weather situation seriously. With the potential for serious icing, avoid travel whenever you can. Be sure to have food supplies that require no cooking or refrigeration. Be very careful with candles – avoid them if you can. Above all else, be safe. Stay tuned here for additional information as the whole team brings the latest information your way. Stay warm and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather