Some Rain Tomorrow; Some Ice Early Friday?

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THIS AFTERNOON: Really not a bad day. The sun is shining brightly this afternoon in areas southwest of Birmingham, while the sky is mostly cloudy elsewhere. Temperatures are mostly in the 50s as the last patches of snow are fighting for their lives. Hardly any rain on radar around here.

TOMORROW: The next short wave will bring some rain to the state tomorrow, but amounts should be light. However, we do note the new 12Z NAM is a little more aggressive with the rain, printing 0.69″ for Birmingham. The GFS is probably closer to the truth with 0.45″. Rain will end late tomorrow as the wave moves on to the east.

WEDNESDAY: The weather will be a bit colder; look for a clearing sky with a high in the mid 40s. The models have come in colder for Wednesday, and we will probably need to trend that was in the forecast.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: We warm nicely into the 56-60 degree range Thursday afternoon, but the Arctic cold front will bring rain to the state Thursday night, with amounts around 1/2 inch likely. Just north of here, a good snow event is setting up for Thursday night across Tennessee and Kentucky, where amounts of 2-5 inches are possible.

Then, late Thursday night, as the Arctic air invades Alabama, there is a good chance the rain will change to freezing rain and light snow before ending. Most of this will happen in the midnight-6:00 a.m. time frame (the pre-dawn hours Friday), and the wintry precipitation probably won’t last more than two hours. Odds of a big snow accumulation down this way look low due to the warm soil temperatures, and the fact that the snow won’t last long, and it will probably be light.

The greatest concern for Friday morning is bridge icing. With one-half inch of rain expected Thursday night, and temperatures rapidly dropping into the upper 20s by daybreak Friday, there will still be standing water on bridges and overpasses, and some ice is certainly possible, if not likely, all the way down to I-20.

We also note some places up across the Tennessee Valley might see some decent accumulating snow late Thursday night, especially near the Tennessee border. Way too early to be specific; long time readers know we like to get within 48 hours of an event like this before we make specific accumulation guidance. Stay tuned.

Friday will be very cold, with temperatures at or below freezing most of the day with wind chill readings in the teens.

OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be cold and dry. We start the day with a hard freeze; most places will see a low in the mid to upper teens. The day will feature ample sunshine, but the high will be only in the 36-40 degree range. The weather stays sunny on Sunday with a high in the mid 40s.

NEXT WEEK: The next chance of precipitation seems to be on Tuesday of next week (1/25) with a energetic looking system, at least depicted by the ECMWF. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

VOODOO LAND: The operational runs of the GFS sure don’t jive up with the teleconnections outlook (AO, NAO, etc). The last few days show a continued cold and unsettled pattern through late January and early February. Just another reason we call it voodoo country, you know.

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Tags: cold, rain

Category: Alabama's Weather