Wild Weather Day For Much Of The Nation

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BUSY BUSY DAYS: I think I set a new record for the length of the Weather Xtreme video today… just too much to discuss with the intense storm today, and two possibilities for winter weather mischief down the line. Be sure and watch for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion. Let’s take it all one weather system at a time…

TODAY/TONIGHT: Our developing surface low is over East Texas… this will be lifting northeast on a track toward the Mississippi Delta and on into western Kentucky by this evening, with the central pressure dropping below 1000 mb by late afternoon. Needless to say, this will bring a crippling blizzard to areas from Tulsa to St. Louis to Chicago to Detroit… see the Weather Xtreme video for more on this major event to the north of Alabama.

HANG ON TO YOUR HAT: The pressure gradient winds will increase during the day, and by afternoon winds could easily gust to 35 mph, with gusts to over 40 mph on the ridges. This alone could be enough to bring down a few trees and power lines.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: SPC has now put the western two thirds of Alabama in a standard, slight risk of severe weather for this afternoon and tonight. This is basically for areas west of U.S. 431, and I think that is a pretty good call. Despite the lack of surface based instability, you have to respect the intense dynamic forcing associated with this system. We note the low level jet (around 5,000 feet up) is almost 80 knots, and it won’t take much to bring some of that down to the surface.

The main window for severe weather in Alabama will come from 4:00 p.m. until 11:00 p.m., and the main risk will come from damaging straight line winds. Of course, there is a huge amount of storm relative helicity, so a small spin up tornado can’t be totally ruled out somewhere. We will have to watch that radar very closely this evening. And, you will need to be in a position to hear severe weather watches and warnings if they are needed.

LOTS OF RAIN: Looks like about one inch of rain can be expected… the NAM is printing 0.92″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is drier with 0.52″. This won’t be enough for any flooding issues.

WINTER COLD RETURNS: The rain moves out by midnight tonight, and cold air flowing over the vast snow pack to the north arrives in Alabama tomorrow. We will struggle to reach the low 40s with an icy northwest wind with gradual clearing. But, clearing will be short lived with a southwest flow aloft continuing, and Thursday looks like a cloudy and cold day with potential for some rain down in far South Alabama.

ICE ISSUES THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY? I sure don’t want to be too specific right now, but you can clearly see the potential for a little freezing rain with very cold (but shallow) air at the surface, and a southwest flow aloft due to an approaching short wave. The rain over South Alabama will move northward Thursday night, and we could very well have a little bridge icing to deal with early Friday morning. This is just a possibility… we need to get the big system out of here tonight before we can really deal with this issue with confidence. Just be aware the idea is on the table, especially for areas north of I-20.

COLD, WET FRIDAY: Periods of rain are likely Friday, and we might have a hard time getting out of the 30s. And, on the backside of the departing wave, we might see a few snow flakes Friday night or early Saturday. See the Weather Xtreme video and you will see that BUFKIT analysis of model data hints at this. Again, too early to be specific, but one way or another it would be light, most likely.

OUR WEEKEND: Chilly air stays in place, but most of the weekend looks dry. We might see some clearing Saturday afternoon with a high in the 40s, and we might reach the low 50s Sunday with a partly sunny sky.

NEXT WEEK: An Arctic cold front is poised to move through Alabama Monday evening… again the GFS hints at a little light rain or snow with this feature, and then the 06Z run shows a very cold airmass dropping in here Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. On Tuesday we could very well have a hard time rising above freezing, with lows in the 10-15 degree range by Wednesday or Thursday morning. Considering the snow cover that will be in place across the nation, those numbers are very possible.

BOTTOM LINE: This is all a pretty challenging forecast here for the next 10 days (and probably beyond)… so stay tuned for changes. The overall pattern hints at cold air in place with a mean southwest flow aloft through mid-February, which opens to door for a variety of cans of worms along the way. It will be a very interesting ride.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We had a great time last night producing the 5th anniversary show… it is now available on iTunes and the web.. so check it out. I am amazed at the quality of guests that have joined us over the years…. some true weather legends.

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I have a weather program today at Concord Elementary School… J.B. will have updates throughout the day on the big storm system, and my next discussion and Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: rain, severe storms, snow, wind

Category: Alabama's Weather