Severe Storms Likely By Friday Afternoon

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

NICE TODAY/TOMORROW: While most of the attention will be focused on the Friday afternoon/evening event, the good news is that we will enjoy some delightful spring weather for the next 48 hours. We are starting the day mostly in the 40s, but we rise into the upper 70s this afternoon with maximum available sunshine and low humidity. Just about as nice as it gets this time of the year. The sky will stay mostly sunny tomorrow with a high at or just over 80.

FRIDAY: A vigorous stacked low (from the surface to 20,000 feet) will be near Kansas City by midday, and widespread convection will break out in the warm sector to the south during the morning hours over Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This will move into our state later in the day Friday into Friday night… it still looks like the main window for severe weather here will be from about 3:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this system.

SPC has all of Alabama in a severe weather risk for Friday afternoon and Friday night, and a significant severe weather risk is defined for West Alabama and East Mississippi.

Here are some severe weather parameters for Friday evening for Birmingham from the 00Z NAM…

Surface based CAPE 450 j/kg
Lifted index -3.4
0-3 storm relative helicity 223 m2/s2
850 mb wind speed 45 knots
500 mb wind speed 74 knots

Clearly the potential limiting factor is the surface based instability; you really want to see SBCAPE values over 1,500 j/kg this time of the year. Timing will be important; if the dynamics arrive later Friday night after the sun is down, then more than likely it will be another squall line situation with the main threat being straight line winds. But, if it happens earlier during the peak of the daytime heating process, and if we can get some sun breaking through the clouds during the midday hours, that would really increase the tornado potential assuming the cap breaks.

So, still lots of questions, but no doubt there is a chance there could be a significant severe weather event in our state Friday afternoon and Friday night, so keep an eye on these discussions as we get closer to the event. Remember also this is race weekend at Talladega, so thousands of campers will be out on the grounds at the Superspeedway that will need to really keep up with weather developments.

COOLER WEEKEND: Saturday will feature a clearing sky in the wake of the storms, and we turn cooler. The high Saturday will be in the mid to upper 60s with a cool breeze. Sunday looks picture perfect, with blue sky and sunshine along with low humidity. The high Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s following a morning low around 40. Doesn’t get much better for the running of the Aarons 499 at the Talladega Superspeedway.

NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS continues the idea of dry weather on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday along with a good chance of showers and storms. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

I will be speaking to the kids in the kindergarten program at Oak Mountain Presbyterian Church today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30. Enjoy the day!

Tags: sunny

Category: Alabama's Weather