Significant Severe Weather Threat By Friday Afternoon

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THIS AFTERNOON: Doesn’t get much better than this. A bright sunny sky, low humidity, and temperatures in the 70s. One of the warmest spots at 2:00 was Alexander City with 77 degrees.

We will squeeze out one more nice day tomorrow with a good supply of sunshine and a high close to 80. To the west, a severe weather/tornado outbreak will likely begin across the nation’s heartland, where SPC has a moderate risk out for places like Tulsa and Wichita.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FRIDAY: All of Alabama is in the SPC severe weather risk Friday, with an enhanced risk over the western half of the state into East Mississippi. We still believe the main risk will begin at mid-afternoon around 3:00 over West Alabama, then spreading east during the evening and nighttime hours.

Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics… here are some severe weather parameters valid at 7:00 p.m. local time Friday from the 12Z NAM…

Surface based CAPE: 820 j/kg
Lifted index: -1.9
0-3 km storm relative helicity: 402 m2/s2
850 mb wind speed: 50 knots
500 mb wind speed: 72 knots

Seems like the NAM instability values are fairly low, otherwise everything seems in place for a significant severe weather outbreak for Alabama. Discreet thunderstorms should form during the peak of the afternoon heating process in the 3-8 p.m. time frame; those storms could be severe with potential for high wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Then, the squall line will move through a little later, exiting the state around 2:00 a.m. Damaging winds will be the main threat along this line.

Alabamians will need to be a in a place to hear severe weather watches and warnings Friday afternoon and Friday night, and all of the campers around the Talledega Superspeedway will need to be very aware of the weather, and have a plan of action ready in case a tornado warning is issued for that part of Talladega County.

COOLER WEEKEND: We expect a clearing sky Saturday with a high in the 67-70 degree range, but clouds could hang tough for much of the day over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama, as they will be closer to the large upper low over the Great Lakes. Sunday promises to be a perfect day for the running of the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega with blue sky, sunshine, low humidity, and a high in the low to mid 70s following a low in the low 40s early Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Moist air returns early in the week, but there is no real forcing for significant amounts of rain. And, the 12Z GFS has backed off of the idea of a mid-week cold front on Wednesday. Confidence is low in any specific forecast for now; see the Weather Xtreme video for long range ideas.

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I enjoyed seeing the kids today at the “Treehouse” at Oak Mountain Presbyterian Church… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM this evening at 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather