Day Three Moderate Risk

The Storm Prediction Center does not use the “moderate” risk wording on Day Three that often, but they have outlined much of north and central Alabama in a *MODERATE* risk area for Wednesday:

Rare Day 3 Moderate Risk for Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky

And just like with the April 15th event, the wording from SPC is stern, but in our opinion, certainly not overdone. This is the headline:

YET ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY VERY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DAY 3 /WED. AND EARLY THU. APR. 27 AND 28/ — WITH ELEVATED
THREAT FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK EVIDENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

Much of Alabama is actually under a *SLIGHT* risk for tomorrow as some of the storms from today & tonight west of us will likely rumble through our state on Tuesday in the form of a squall line. While an active tornado outbreak is likely in Arkansas, parts of Tennessee, and even northwestern Mississippi today, the changing upper-air dynamics should allow for the development of a squall line that impacts northwest Alabama after midnight.

Those storms will slowly weaken as they move across northern Alabama Tuesday morning, and additional scattered potentially strong or severe storms will develop in the afternoon. Wednesday, however, looks to be Alabama and middle Tennessee’s big day. Another quote from SPC’s discussion drives home the idea:

THE MOST FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE…STRONG SHEAR…FOCUSED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT…AND ANTICIPATED LACK OF APPRECIABLE PRIOR
CONVECTION INDICATES A RELATIVELY HIGH-CONFIDENCE AREA OF
CONCENTRATED SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION.
THEREFORE…WILL INTRODUCE MODERATE RISK FORECAST ATTM —
INDICATIVE OF OUTBREAK POTENTIAL.

To read the entire discussion, click here: SPC Day 3 Outlook (very technical information).

You know we’ll be here watching, waiting, and updating. Check in with us often to see how this will all unfold over the next 72 hours.

-Jason
Follow me on Twitter: @simpson3340
Facebook: Jason Michael Simpson

Category: Severe Weather