More Severe Weather Ahead

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TODAY: One more decent day is ahead for Alabama… today will feature a partly sunny sky with a warm afternoon. Temperatures will rise well into the 80s again, and while most places will stay dry, we can’t rule out a small “pop-up” storm somewhere this afternoon or into the evening hours. To the west, more severe weather will break out, and a moderate risk is up for almost all of Arkansas and some of the adjacent states. Be sure and see the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion.

TOMORROW: The activity over Arkansas should roll over into a squall line after midnight tonight, and that line could make it into Alabama early tomorrow morning. The storms should be weakening by that time, but we all know sometimes squall lines can hold together longer than you might think, so we will keep an eye on early morning radar trends. The morning convection should dissipate, but more storms could fire up around here tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. SPC has the northern two-thirds of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” tomorrow… but the big day for severe weather should come on Wednesday.

We also need to mention heavy rain and flooding will be a concern, and the rain tomorrow could be heavy with the stronger storms. The NWS in Huntsville has already gone ahead and issued a flash flood watch for tomorrow and Wednesday due to this possibility. Rain amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible.

WEDNESDAY: SPC, in their day three convective outlook, already has much of North Alabama under a moderate risk. Sure looks like all of the ingredients will be there; a surface low will form north of Memphis, which will give very favorable low level shear, and it looks like the capping inversion should break by mid-afternoon with scattered supercells forming over North and Central Alabama, which will have potential for large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes. Based on the forecast parameters, a few strong, long track tornadoes will be possible Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening, so it will be yet another day on which you will need to be close to a good source of severe weather information. If you read this blog, we don’t worry about you, but be sure and pass the word along.

Wednesday night evening the storms will organize into a long squall line, with potential for damaging wind and even an isolated QLCS tornado.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A cooler, refreshing airmass moves into the state on these days, with highs in the low 70s Thursday, and upper 70s Friday. A good chance we visit the upper 40s Thursday and Friday morning. Dry air means a sunny sky both days.

WEEKEND PEEK: We should begin the weekend with a sunny day on Saturday with a high in the low 80s, but a cold front will bring the next chance of showers and storms on Sunday. This time it looks like the severe weather threat will be marginal with the main dynamics so far north, but the front is expected to stall somewhere around I-20, which could set up a heavy rain threat Sunday night into Monday.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Tonight’s show (we record at 8:30) will be about severe weather and large venues. The panel will be joined by Richard Okulski from the National Weather Service in Memphis. Each May, they face weather challenges as they support the huge Memphis in May Barbecue and Music Festival. He will share some memorable stories and insights about forecasting for an event like Memphis in May. He will also share information about the Super Tuesday outbreak a couple of years ago.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

I am speaking this morning at Black Creek Country Club in Chattanooga, Tennessee… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: Severe Weather

Category: Alabama's Weather