A Call To Fix An Ailing Warning System….

This post is meant for everyone involved in the severe weather warning process… the TV weather people, along with folks with the National Weather Service and EMA offices around Alabama. Long time readers know this has been a concern of mine for a while, and after watching developments last Friday from a distance (I was out of town when two tornado warnings were issued for the northern half of the state), I think all of us need to seriously consider that we have a problem. And, that problem can be summed up in two words: “cry wolf”.

I believe the average Alabamian is getting very complacent when it comes to severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings simply because we have too many of them that are not needed.

Before I comment on anyone else, let me first look in the mirror.

FOR JAMES SPANN: I believe those of us in the broadcast meteorology business (TV/Internet/Radio) use way too much hyperbole and drama during routine severe weather threats. Sure, there are times when we must use strong wording with an urgent tone, but those times will be few and far between. Getting all worked up over a marginally severe storm (especially an elevated storm above a cool surface airmass) with broad rotation makes no sense; people simply won’t pay much attention when we do have a tornado emergency with a strong/violent twister on the ground approaching a major metropolitan area. We have to be honest when describing the situation to the public.

FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: I continue to believe the FAR (false alarm ratio) is way too high. For every 10 tornado warnings issued in Alabama, only one to two of those will verify with actual tornado damage. The easiest thing to do when you see a TVS (tornado vortex signature) on radar is issue a warning; the hardest thing to do is to keep your finger off the trigger. Lowering the number of false warnings needs to be a top priority for 2008. And, understand, this is not a Birmingham problem, this is a national problem.

FOR EMA DIRECTORS: And, we have to figure out a way for sirens to sound only for areas within the new polygon tornado warning method. The old concept of sounding sirens across an entire county for a tornado that is one-quarter of a mile wide simply isn’t needed with today’s radar and spotting technology. Of course, we tell folks not to rely on sirens anyway. Outdoor warning sirens are not the primary answer; we simply need a digital NOAA Weather Radio receiver in every Alabama home and business. I believe the “siren mentality” (the idea that you should hear a tornado siren before every tornado) will kill many people in Alabama. So, for those that do have the “siren mentality”, we must reduce the siren FAR.

My hope that 2008 is the year of improvement for the severe weather warning system in Alabama. All of us in the media, the NWS, and the EMA are part of a big family, and I hope all of the family members will work hard on getting better in 2008. That is how families stay together, you know…

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