Scattered Showers Sticking with Us

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Look for our air mass to continue pretty much unchanged for the next week or so as other changes especially in the upper air pattern begins to shift slowly. For today look for the heat to continue with scattered thunderstorms developing primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. I think the chances for storms continues to be rather high for western and central sections of Alabama. Highs should reach the middle 90s for most locations.

There are changes underway in the overall upper air pattern. The ridge continues to be flattened by traveling weather systems along the northern tier of the US. This alone leads to the placement of a weak trough over the eastern half of the country. By about Friday, a very deep low just south of Alaska will help to pump up the ridge over the western US. This in turn leads to a better trough over the eastern US. And since there is no real air mass change for us, I expect to see a continuation of daily rain chances pretty much in the 30 to 40 percent range. But with the pattern shifting more to a weak trough look for temperatures to moderate a bit with highs staying away from extreme values – generally lower 90s toward next weekend.

Beyond this change, the GFS is once again pointing to a big trough oriented along the Mississippi River. We often get a break in the pattern in mid or late August, so this long range forecast could come to be. If this pattern does occur, we would see an air mass change which would bring a good round of rain plus lowered temperatures for a day or do along with lower humidity – and that would feel great! The ridge does build back around the 21st, however, the GFS also hints at a weakness in the ridge over the Southeast US which would translate to scattered showers.

Tropics are still relatively quiet with all eyes focused on the remnants of Emily. Emily just a shadow of what she was as she moves on a northwesterly course through the Bahamas. The system is very weak but conditions do remain favorable for the system to regain some strength and regenerate into a tropical storm. Models remain clustered on a recurvature into the Central Atlantic as it moves by just east of South Florida.

SPC continues to highlight areas for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the northern tier of the US and the northern periphery of the upper ridge.

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-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather