Drier Air on the Horizon

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I think that just about everyone I know is ready for some relief from the heat we’ve been experiencing across the Southeast US this summer. Well take heart, I believe we are going to see some relief in the form of drier air and air that is slightly cooler.

The northwesterly flow pattern that I mentioned last weekend appears in the works which should drive some slightly drier air into the Southeast US. This means a drop in dew points from the upper 60s to the lower 60s. Certainly not a big change, however, enough of a change to make the air feel a bit better for us. Along with the drier air will be a slight decrease in temperatures. I believe we’ll see highs drop to around 90 or so which means some spots could see the upper 80s. And the drier air also means some morning lows in the lower 60s – perhaps some spots especially in Northeast Alabama reaching the upper 50s. Those morning lows are going to feel great!

The reason for the changes is the development of an upper trough over the eastern half of the country. This will bring a northwesterly flow into the Southeast. For today, look for showers again – widely spaced – but overnight and into Sunday morning we could see numerous showers with the approach and passage of the weak front. Once the front passes, the air will dry out and shower potential drops to nothing. Look for no showers on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as we enjoy the benefits of the drier air and some morning lows in the 60s.

The trough weakens Thursday, however, another strong short wave should reinforce the trough by Friday driving another weak front into the Southeast US. This should provide at least another shot at some showers Thursday and Friday. Once the front goes by late Friday, we should see another shot of dry air into next weekend.

Rainfall this evening and Sunday morning will be spotty again with showers. I think that there is a good chance for many to see some rain with amounts of a quarter to a half inch. No rain again until late in next week.

Tropics have become much busier. Franklin in on the board but headed out to see. Three other disturbances are under surveillance. Two of those are likely to stay well out in the Atlantic with no threat to the US – maybe a threat to Bermuda. A third disturbance about 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands bears watching. Computer track guidance suggests the disturbance could come into the eastern Caribbean. Development will be slow with nothing likely to happen for at least 48 hours.

Some risk of severe storms today across the area from about Paducah to Detroit. That area shifts eastward on Day 2 to the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard.

While the troughiness weakens somewhat, the GFS suggests that it will be sticking around so no extreme heat likely for us well into week 2.

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Can’t believe how close I have come to rain without getting more than a few drops. Perhaps tonight I’ll get some rain on my yard which is looking parched. Got to give a talk at the Mensa Conference in Homewood later this morning. I hope you have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather