Strong Storms Tonight

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THIS MORNING: Yet again dense fog is an issue in scattered pockets across Alabama. Doesn’t seem to be as widespread as recent mornings, but still visibility is down to a fraction of a mile in spots. Radar shows a band of moderate rain from near Uniontown to Fort Deposit, and from near Haleyville to Guntersville over North Alabama. We will maintain the chance of showers today as the mild and moist air stays in place.

SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT? SPC has decided to expand their “slight risk” of severe weather today to include most of Mississippi, and all of Alabama south of a line from Russellville to Gadsden. It is certainly not a classic severe weather setup, but we all know these high shear low CAPE episodes can present some surprises in the cold season.

The latest model runs are a little more aggressive with the instability, with the 00Z NAM showing a surface based CAPE of 912 j/kg here late tonight. Of course, you really want to see that value much higher for a classic outbreak, but that will certainly support storms rooted in the boundary layer. Low level shear values remain high, so we could very well see a storm or two that shows signs of rotation.

The core period for severe storms around here will be from about 8:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m…. with the best mix of support from the upper low, diffluence aloft, higher lapse rates, instability, and shear. We will keep a close eye on the radar.

TOMORROW: Lingering showers are possible tomorrow, and we might even hear of some small hail in those showers due to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low. And, we begin to turn cooler with daytime temperatures generally in the 50s.

COLDER DAYS: That cooling trend continues through the end of the week. We will struggle to reach the low 50s Thursday, and Friday should be the coldest day with a high in the 40-45 degree range. The GFS is finally coming around to the ECMWF solution for higher forecast confidence. Both Friday and Saturday morning will feature a significant freeze, with the coldest temperatures coming early Saturday with lows between 18 and 25 degrees for most places.

The weekend will be dry with a slow warming trend. The high Saturday will be somewhere between 48 and 52, and we should reach the mid 50s Sunday. The GFS has lost the bogus wave it depicted for days on Sunday; it is now dry like other global models.

NEXT WEEK: Seems like our next chance of rain comes around Tuesday of next week with another disturbance moving along in the southern branch of the jet stream.

LONG RANGE: While we will certainly see a cold shot or two over the next 15-20 days, still no signs of the NAO going negative, meaning those cold snaps will be short lived, like the one late this week. And, no sign of any winter weather snow/ice mischief around here for the next two weeks. See the Weather Xtreme video for full details on both short and medium range weather for Alabama.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST… tonight’s guest is Jeff Garmon, who is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the NWS office in Mobile.

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I have a weather program today at Trace Crossings Elementary School in Hoover… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: storms

Category: Alabama's Weather