Cold Weekend Ahead

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TRENDING COLDER: Cooler air flows into Alabama today, and our high today will be in the mid 50s in most places with a good supply of sunshine.

Clouds will increase tomorrow ahead of the next cold front, and a few sprinkles or patches of light rain are possible tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Moisture will be very limited, so rain amounts will be very light and spotty. We reach the mind 50s tomorrow, which is about where we should be for early February.

SNOW FLURRIES? I always hesitate to mention this, because the public tends to see the word “snow” instead of the word “flurries”, but blog readers always get it. The RPM insists that snow flurries are possible over North Alabama, generally along and north of I-59, Saturday morning as cold air blows into Alabama. And, I think that idea is credible, and we will probably need to mention it in the public forecast. No big deal, of course, but certainly a sign that this weekend won’t be offering the mild temperatures we have enjoyed recently.

The sky becomes sunny Saturday afternoon, and Sunday will be a day of maximum sunshine. But, the weekend will be chilly. The 00Z GFS has trended a bit colder, showing highs in the 44-47 degree range both days. And, the MOS is printing a low of 19 for Birmingham early Sunday. That might be a tad too cold since there is no snow cover northwest of Alabama, but certainly everybody should be well down in the 20s at daybreak Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The weather will turn warmer, and potentially stormy next week. We will start the week with a low down in the 20s again early Monday; clouds increase during the day, and showers are likely late Monday, Monday night, and into at least a part of the day Tuesday. Rain totals in the 1/2 inch range look likely with this lead short wave.

We are actually getting pretty good agreement now between global models; they suggest Wednesday will be dry, followed by a stronger wave with a good round of rain and thunderstorms on Thursday. This could very well be a setup for strong storms, but it is way too early to be specific, we will just watch the situation in coming days. The GFS is showing highs in the upper 60s Wednesday, and low 70s Thursday, meaning some decent surface based instability could be available.

LONG RANGE: Be sure and scroll down for Dr. Tim’s excellent post on the winter of 2011-12 so far, and the potential for the rest of the season. That pretty much says it all. And, see the Weather Xtreme video for NAO updates and graphics.

STORM ALERT 2012 TONIGHT: Our annual severe weather awareness tour rolls along… we will be in Phil Campbell tonight at Shoals-Northwest Community college. We begin at 6:30, but be sure and get there early for a good seat. There is no charge, of course… so we hope to see you there.

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Busy today. I mean big time busy. I have a weather program this morning at Irondale Middle School… then at midday I will be speaking to a meeting of the Alabama Self Storage Association at Barber Motorsports Park. Then, we fly in the chopper to Phil Campbell for tonight’s show. That, of course, means I won’t be able to produce an afternoon Weather Xtreme video, but I will write a quick afternoon discussion by 3:00 or so. Enjoy the day, and hope to see you at Storm Alert 2012 tonight….

Tags: colder

Category: Alabama's Weather