Weather Settling Down

*** No Weather Xtreme Video this morning due to an early start for a workshop/retreat at my church. I do expect to have a video posted on Sunday morning by 8 am. ***

What a stormy afternoon and evening we’ve had with most locations receiving around an inch of rain. There were multiple reports of hail from half inch to one inch along with wind damage primary in the form of trees down. Tim and I were out along the future I-22 corridor in Marion County and photographed a rather impressive wall cloud that showed weak rotation but did not produce a tornado. The shear was just not sufficient in Central Alabama. As Tim noted in a post around 5 pm yesterday, the sunshine which usually invigorates the atmosphere and helps develop severe storms may have helped suppress the severe situation yesterday by helping to mix in a small dry layer around 4,000 feet. This changed the whole dynamics for us and helped us dodge a bullet.

This morning the bulk of the rain was along and southeast of a line from about Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Oxford-Anniston. The area of rain will continue to gradually shift to the east and southeast during the morning so that all of Central Alabama should be free of rain by noon time. But the clouds are likely to stick in around here with the best chances for clearing across northwest counties. Some of West Central Alabama could see some afternoon sunshine. And it will be much colder than the last several days with highs only in the middle 50s. In fact, the highs for today probably occurred around midnight. Birmingham was at 62 and had fallen to 47 at sunrise. Strong cold air advection will keep afternoon temperatures from climbing more than a few degrees into the middle 50s at best.

I noted yesterday that for 2012 I had recorded four days with 1 inch or more of rain. Well that total went up to five with the rain total yesterday. Also interesting to note that my March rainfall is close to three inches – 2.85″ – which is nearly half of the monthly average for March of 6.10″. The Birmingham airport, site of the official observations for Central Alabama, on the other hand, has not been as fortunate with just under two inches so far for March.

And Sunday morning early risers will definitely need a jacket as the lows fall to near freezing with some colder spots possibly getting into the upper 20s. Tomorrow morning should be the coldest morning as the upper trough marches by and we begin to see a fairly quick moderation to temperatures.

By Tuesday we are back under an upper ridge as we watch a significant trough dig into the western US. As that trough digs into the four corners area on Wednesday it will pump up the ridge over the eastern US and put the Southeast under a strong southwesterly flow aloft. This should warm us up to near 70 by mid week.

Unfortunately this is the point at which the ECMWF and GFS part company – in a big way! The GFS splits the flow and cuts off a closed low over West Texas on Thursday. The GFS maintains the closed low split from the main westerlies well north along the Canadian border. And that closed low is slow to come out finally reaching East Texas by Saturday. This signals a pretty dry period for us until Saturday. The ECMWF, on the other hand, brings the strong upper trough right across the country with another round of wet weather late Thursday and Friday followed by a big chill down for next Saturday. Pretty tough to resolve this kind of difference when they are so badly out of phase with each other. I’m siding a little more with the European by noting a chance of showers Thursday and Friday in my forecast but not jumping completely on that wagon just yet.

The ECMWF does not go out as far as the GFS, so we only have the GFS as a guide into voodoo country. There are two things that seem apparent from the longer range model solutions. First, the flow remains progressive with a continuation of the fast flow and weather systems about every 3 days. Second, there appears to be no sign of any significant cold air in our immediate future.

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I will be attending a workshop/retreat at my church today which begins in only a short awhile, so I just did not have enough time to produce the Weather Xtreme Video this morning. I do expect to have one tomorrow morning. Please note that the Birmingham Hamfest is this weekend. A hamfest is a gathering of amateur radio operators to swap stories, renew acquaintance, buy and sell equipment, and in general have some great fellowship. This annual event will be at the Zamora Temple – for details click here.

Enjoy the day and be a good person by performing some senseless act of kindness! Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman, Knupp, and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.

Category: Alabama's Weather