Wet Friday Shaping Up

Please note that there will not be a video this morning. I am currently handling weather operations for the Honda Indy Grand Prix at Barber Motorsports Park, and the environment is definitely not favorable for audio due to the loudness of the cars even in the Race Control Building.

Looks like a wet and cloudy Friday is setting up for Central Alabama and much of the Southeast US. A small disturbance was located over Central Mississippi. Radar animations this morning suggest it is moving very slowly but steadily eastward, however, model guidance from both the ECMWF and the GFS show the disturbance moving through the area by Saturday morning. Going to have to keep an eye on the speed of the upper trough just to be sure the models are not overly optimistic with the movement.

Radar currently showed numerous showers over much of Mississippi. The rotation of the upper trough along with the movement east has given a northward motion to many of the cells over the northern half of Mississippi. As the upper trough moves eastward, it will be enhancing lift over Alabama, so I expect to see numerous showers for us this afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts will vary due to the character of showers, but one half to one inch amounts are likely.

The GFS shows the trough moving out of the area Saturday which would pave the way for a great day followed by another one on Sunday. The ECMWF, on the other hand, suggests another impulse moving through the upper flow early Sunday. The ECMWF generates a small area of showers with that impulse primarily over South Alabama. The GFS MOS also shows an upward tick in rain chances Saturday night into Sunday morning. For now, I’ll keep the forecast dry, but we may need to mention rain chances for Saturday night.

We come under a ridge for Monday and Tuesday before the next system comes our way. A strong close upper low is projected to come out of the southern Rockies late Tuesday and Wednesday. This appears to be a very potent low in both models with only small differences in location and strength. The ECMWF is a little stronger and a little further south that the GFS which has the center over the ARKLATX. The GFS pushed it by on Wednesday with the upper low over Dothan by midday on Thursday. This puts us in the bullseye for severe weather chances on Wednesday or early Thursday. The European, however, takes the upper low much further south, so the model differences have kept the SPC outlook from highlighting a slight risk out that far.

A big ridge following the passage of the upper low should provide a nice weekend following a brief cool down as the upper trough moves east of us providing a nice northwesterly flow pattern. And with all the heat we’ve seen so far in March, I am just fine with some cool days in April.

The long range voodoo country outlook maintains a progressive pattern shifted northward along the Canadian border. This keeps us mostly dry and warm with a shot at rain around April 11th and 12th.

I hope your yard gets some rain today. We have seen a short spell of dry weather and with everything blooming, I know the vegetation can use it. Sorry for the lack of videos this weekend due to my work at the Honda Indy Grand Prix. I will post updated discussions over the weekend and as time permits. Make the day a great one and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather