Devilish Pattern

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Well, if you are looking for a weather pattern with a straight forward forecast, don’t be looking at today’s situation. While we continue to be under an upper ridge, the overall weather pattern affecting Central Alabama is anything but simple. First, there is a cluster of storms just north of Nashville that is plodding southeastward and this cluster will be setting up boundaries along which thunderstorm development could be focused. Second, there is a weak short wave located in the vicinity of the ARKLATEX that is projected to move slowly northeastward. And we in Central Alabama are right between these two. Plus we have high humidity with dew points in the mid 60s and mostly clear skies this morning will allow afternoon temperatures to swell to near 90. This means that just about anything is possible in our weather and we have many outdoor events going on this weekend that could be negatively impacted by strong storms such as the races at the Talladega Super Speedway and the Schaeffer Crawfish Boil in downtown Birmingham.

While I prefer to try to forecast rain or no rain, it looks like showers and thunderstorms are possible in Central Alabama today. We will need to keep a close eye on that cluster north of Nashville. Movement of it continued to be southeastward, so it is not of immediate concern. What is a concern is the boundary it will be laying out which could be the future focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and into the evening. Damaging wind is the most likely threat, however, isolated large hail may also be an issue.

Sunday there is not much change to the overall pattern, so it will be another day with thunderstorm potential. By Monday through Wednesday, there is a series of strong short waves forecast to move across the Central Mississippi River Valley that promise to bring a change to the area and sweep everything out of here. That brings some fairly high rain chances along with some potential for severe storms especially on Monday and Tuesday.

The weather improves with the passage of the strong short wave on Wednesday. But the GFS doesn’t really help to make the forecast for the end of the week any easier. It develops a closed low under the western ridge that could bring another shot of rain our way by Friday and Saturday. This is getting out a ways, however, the ECMWF is also showing a similar pattern, so there could be something to it. But before I go jumping on this next system, I’d like to get the current situation resolved and then we can begin to focus our attention on the next one.

Overall this is a good chance we could see rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across Central Alabama with the rain chances over the next five days. With the growing rainfall deficit, we could certainly use it.

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I’m providing weather support services to the Schaeffer Eye Center Crawfish Boil today, so I’ll be glued to the computer watching the hourly conditions unfold. I probably will not have a chance to take in any of the spectacular lineup going on at the venue. Be sure to keep aware of the weather. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather