Strong/Severe Storms Later Today
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THIS MORNING: Somewhat of a complex forecast today as we have a morning MCS (mesoscale convective system) moving into the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama. These storms are slowly weakening, and will lay down an outflow boundary which should serve as the focus of new thunderstorms later today.
The guys at SPC maintain their standard “slight risk” of severe weather for about the northern two-thirds of Alabama today, with a 30 percent enhancement over some of the western and central counties. Severe storms should form along and south of the outflow boundary, and it remains to be seen exactly where that will be, but I get the idea the most active storms this afternoon and tonight will come along and south of I-59.
The main threat will come from small hail and strong, gusty straight line winds. Remember tornadoes are very unlikely in Alabama in the summer months unless we have a tropical system involved.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The air aloft will be warmer over the weekend, so we expect showers and storms to thin out tomorrow and Sunday. Pretty much the usual summer routine, with partly sunny days and the risk of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. The high both days should be in the low 90s.
NEXT WEEK: No doubt our weather will trend hotter and drier as heights continue to rise. I still don’t expect heat levels to get out of hand… we are looking at mostly mid 90s, although a few upper 90s are possible, especially for West and Northwest Alabama, along the way. We can be thankful for the good soil moisture levels due to this week’s rain; that will also help the heat from running away. Each day there will be a few showers and storms around, but they should be widely scattered, and mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very, very quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.
GULF COAST WEATHER: A few showers and storms are likely on the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, but they will become fewer in number tomorrow and Sunday with about 6 to 8 hours of sun each day over the weekend. Highs today will be in the mid 80s, followed by upper 80s tomorrow and Sunday. The sea water temperature is running generally in the mid 80s.
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Category: Alabama's Weather