Unsettled Still – and a Tropical Threat

| August 2, 2012 @ 7:05 am

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The pattern for us in Central Alabama remains unsettled as a weakness aloft keeps us in a northwesterly flow pattern. Quite interesting yesterday with two sets of thunderstorms in the northwesterly flow, one to our west across Mississippi and one to the east in Georgia. Alabama was somewhat high and dry for much of the thunderstorm events.

While the northwesterly flow pattern continues it does show signs of weakening as we continue to see the ridge to the west and the Bermuda high to the east try to come together. This means a continuation of daily rain chances with an ever watchful eye to the northwest for the development of any large thunderstorm clusters. The two upper highs never quite fully link up thanks to a strong trough moving across the US-Canadian border. That trough should drag a front into the Tennessee River Valley by Sunday which should increase rain chances for us somewhat and keep a weakness in the upper pattern over the Southeast US.

Temperatures will be hot and humid again today, but a slight change in the surface wind flow should moderate our temperatures by bringing highs back in the lower 90s for much of the next week after today. Clouds and any thunderstorms that do occur will also keep temperatures in check a bit depending on the timing and locations.

Rainfall amounts for the next five days could run to near 2 inches in spots. QPF chart shows widespread rain, however, it will come in the form of showers and thunderstorms so the whole area will not necessarily see that kind of rain. Not unless we see the development of one of those large clusters of thunderstorms like last Tuesday.

Big news in the tropics with tropical depression five. It was not named this morning and was moving rapidly at 21 mph toward the west. No significant strengthening is expected today, however, conditions do improve on Friday so I would expect it to be named then. Bad news for the Gulf, though, because the forecast tracks take the system directly across the Caribbean and it is likely to enter the Gulf by the middle of next week. The GFS suggests a western Gulf storm, but it is really too early to be talking a specific landfall location. Everyone in the Gulf will need to be vigilant for the future Ernesto.

Looking into voodoo and the GFS is bringing the ridge back strongly across the eastern US. We saw this a few days ago, but then it flipped. Need to see some consistency before looking at more heat.

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-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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