Moisture Levels Slowly Rising

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TEXAS TORNADOES: The death toll is up to six in the North Texas tornadoes last night; the most serious damage is in Granbury, in Hood County about 50 miles southwest of Fort Worth. Dozens more were injured. Thankfully we do not expect any organized severe weather in Alabama over the next 10-15 days.

WARM DAYS: We expect a high back in the mid 80s today, and we stay warm through next week. A decent chance we flirt with 90 degrees for the first time this year early next week as an upper ridge builds across the Southeast U.S.

An few isolated showers are possible today, but the chance of any one spot getting wet is only in the 10-15 percent range.

TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: The overall pattern won’t change much, but there should be an increase in the number of showers and storms late tomorrow and tomorrow night as short wave energy gets closer. Guidance looks relatively wet from about 4:00 p.m. tomorrow through 4:00 a.m. Friday; we note SPC has placed parts of North Mississippi under the standard “slight risk” of severe weather, but the shear/instability combination just doesn’t look too impressive over our state, and there is no formal severe weather risk here.

For the weekend, highs will remain mostly in the mid 80s around 85 degrees, and we will maintain the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, generally during the afternoon and evening hours (although we can’t totally rule out a morning shower). There should be some decent intervals of sunshine both days.

NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge gets stronger, so scattered showers will greatly thin out Monday and Tuesday, and afternoons get warmer. The GFS is printing a high of 89 for Birmingham Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. There might be a slight increase in the number of showers around Wednesday and Thursday with a weak front to the north, but the upper ridge will stay strong and widespread rain just doesn’t look very likely. It will feel like summer.

WEEKEND AT THE BEACH: Fine weather for the Hangout Music Festival in Gulf Shores, and just about anywhere from Panama City over to the Alabama coast with sunny days and fair nights through Sunday. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 70s, but expect 80s just a mile or two inland. Sea water temperatures are generally in the low to mid 70s this morning.

ALVIN: Tropical Storm Alvin in the East Pacific is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow, but it is no threat to land, and will begin to dissipate over the weekend as it moves higher in latitude and encounters colder ocean water.

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I will be speaking to a senior adult group this morning in Pell City, and then I am live in Gadsden this evening at 4, 5, and 6:00 on ABC 33/40. Probably won’t be able to produce an afternoon Weather Xtreme video, but I will post more forecast notes here this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

Tags: warm

Category: Alabama's Weather