Warm and Dry into the Coming Week

| May 26, 2013 @ 6:52 am

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Not much change to the overall forecast thinking as we head into an extended warm, dry period for the next week or so. Next reasonably good chance for rain does not appear until a week from today with the approach of a cold front.

But for today we are dealing with a short wave trough seen at the 500 millibar level that was over East Texas this morning. There was a small area of showers associated with that trough which is expected to move steadily across the Southeast US through late Monday. However, the atmosphere over the Southeast is pretty dry, so while we could see a small isolated shower or two tomorrow, I think we’ll see just an increase in clouds with periods of cloudy skies and really not much chance for any real rain threat.

Once that short wave passes late Monday, we will come under a building ridge that should keep our weather warm and dry through the end of the upcoming week. By Friday, an upper trough that moves across the northern tier of the US will drag a front into the area. Saturday it appears that the front will stay northwest of us, however, with the moisture increase that I expect to see, we will probably need to mention a chance for showers. But I think the real chance for showers comes next Sunday as the front edges closer.

Temperatures for the next week will be above our climatological average (83) with highs pretty much in the mid 80s today and upper 80s for the rest of the week. We could push that 90 mark even. Lows will generally drop back into the 60s each morning.

The GFS continues in this run to hold onto some tropical mischief during the first full week of June. Yesterday the surface low seemed to be a little stronger than the 06Z run this morning, but nevertheless it was still holding onto the idea of a surface low coming out of the western Caribbean and traversing the Florida Peninsula. Yesterday, the GFS actually brought the upper low into the Southeast US while today it takes that low into the Southwest Atlantic to a position off the Carolina coast. This is voodoo country, so I’m not going to start mentioning the formation of the first storm of the 2013 hurricane season. The first storm, by the way, would be named Andrea. Fun to speculate on this feature, but I do not put a lot of faith that we’ll actually see something by the time we get into the June 6th to 10 time frame.

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James Spann will be back tomorrow morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. I suspect he will be on a holiday schedule with one video posted during the morning. I’m filling in for a vacationing Ashley Brand, so you can catch my forecast at 5 and 10 pm this evening on ABC 3340. And I’m really excited about my upcoming trip to northern New Hampshire in an attempt to photograph moose with my daughter. Believe me, if we’re successful, I’ll be posting some pictures on the Blog! Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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