Severe Storms Possible Late Tomorrow

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HEAT CHECK: Generally speaking, temperatures are not as hot as forecast around here today, and I don’t hear too many people griping about that. We forecast a high of 96 today… but Birmingham only reports 91 at 3:00. But, to the north, Huntsville has reached 96 degrees. The sky is mostly sunny, and nothing is on radar.

BIG STORMS UP NORTH: A rare “high risk” of severe weather has been issued by SPC for parts of IA/MN/WI/IL until 9p CT, including Chicago. Storms up that way will produce hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes tonight; the standard “slight risk” runs all the way from Iowa to Chesapeake Bay.

OUR SEVERE WEATHER RISK TOMORROW: SPC has much of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather tomorrow. We should begin the day with lots of sunshine during the morning, pushing temperatures into the mid 90s by afternoon. This will create a very unstable atmosphere, with surface based CAPE values expected to reach 4,000 j/kg. Keep in mind very high instability values are not very unusual during the summer months in Alabama, but the issue tomorrow is that there will be some dynamic support for storms thanks to the southern end of an upper trough, along with a low level surface boundary.

The primary window for severe weather will come from 4:00 until 8:00 p.m…. and the main risks will come from large hail and damaging straight line winds. The tornado threat is very low, but keep in mind straight line winds can produce damage like a tornado.

Our friend Kevin Laws at the Birmingham NWS office is a bit concerned… he writes…

“This is not an ordinary slight risk and the potential for 80 mph straight-line winds is possible. We need folks to take the severe thunderstorm warnings serious tomorrow! We are also aware that it is summer and there are lots of outdoor activities going on across the state. It will be critical to get those folks into shelter.”

He makes a good point… so be sure and pay attention to severe thunderstorm warnings that are issued and take them seriously. Storms will move south of our region by 9:00 p.m.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Slightly cooler, and noticeably drier air arrives Friday. The sky will be sunny, humidity levels will be lower, and the high will be in the upper 80s. Some of the cooler spots across North Alabama could reach the 50s early Saturday morning; a nice touch of fall in June. The weekend will be dry with a good supply of sunshine Saturday and Sunday; highs will be in the 89-92 degree range both days.

NEXT WEEK: Moisture levels rise, and a few scattered showers and storms are possible Monday through Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Expect a mix of sun and clouds on these three days with a high around 90 degrees.

TROPICS: All is quiet for now; we do note the GFS continues to hint at some mischief in the Gulf of Mexico later this month; see the Weather Xtreme video for more voodoo land ideas.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Storms will likely impact the Central Gulf Coast tomorrow night, otherwise look for mostly sunny days through the weekend with highs in the 80s on the immediate coast. Sea water temperatures remain generally in the low 80s from Panama City west to Gulf Shores.

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Tags: storms

Category: Alabama's Weather