Severe Storms Possible Late Today

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HEAT, THEN STORMS: We will begin this day with ample sunshine this morning, and temperatures will heat quickly… with most communities reaching the mid 90s by mid-afternoon. This will create an unstable atmosphere, with surface based CAPE values exceeding 4,000 j/kg. With colder air aloft, steep lapse rates, and an approaching surface boundary, severe storms should form over Alabama’s Tennessee Valley, then moving south during the evening hours.

These storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging straight line winds, in some spots exceeding 70 mph. This, of course, will knock down trees and power lines, and maybe even cause some structural damage. While we don’t expect any tornado activity, straight wind winds can produce damage like a smaller tornado, and we encourage everybody to really pay attention to severe thunderstorm warnings are they are needed this evening. And, of course, you will need to be in a position to hear those warnings with a good smart phone app, or NOAA Weather Radio.

The prime window for severe storms will come from 4:00 until 8:00 p.m… after that the threat will move down into the southern half of Alabama. SPC has most of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather… see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

FRESH AIR TOMORROW: Drier, continental air will flow into Alabama. Expect a good supply of sunshine, with a high in the mid to upper 80s along with noticeably lower humidity levels. The weekend will stay rain-free with mostly sunny days and fair nights; the high Saturday and Sunday will be in the 89-92 degree range. Some of the cooler pockets might reach the upper 50s early Saturday morning thanks to the dry air.

NEXT WEEK: Moisture levels will rise, and we will bring back the chance of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” Monday through Wednesday with a mix of sun and clouds each day… the high will be close to 90 degrees. The 00Z GFS hints at drier air creeping into Alabama Thursday and Friday of next week.

TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin this morning… the GFS continues to hint at some kind of tropical system coming up toward the Louisiana coast later this month; get the details on the Weather Xtreme video.

AT THE BEACH: Lots of sunshine for the Gulf Coast today from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, but thunderstorms will move through late tonight and during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. The storms should be weakening as they arrive, and the main threat comes from about midnight until 5:00 a.m. Then, expect mostly sunny days and fair nights tomorrow through the weekend with only a slight risk of a shower. Highs will hold in the 80s along the immediate coast, with 90s just a few miles inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is a warm 84 degrees.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… and of course we will have frequent updates as the storms begin to fire over North Alabama. Enjoy the day…

Tags: storms

Category: Alabama's Weather