Another Warm, Dry Day

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The weather pattern seems almost stuck in a fairly dry pattern. There is a weak upper low and associated pool of cooler air aloft over East Tennessee that helped to enhance shower development yesterday afternoon. I expect to see the same thing happen today as that feature remains nearly stationary. There is a secondary low along the Carolina coast that is being noted by the National Hurricane Center. However, it is expected to drift ashore today and so there is not likely to be any development to that system.

The weak upper low weakens further Sunday and begins to edge out of the picture as the upper ridge continues to build across the eastern part of the country. As the ridge becomes the primary feature in our weather pattern, we will also see a return to a more southerly flow at the surface which will help to gradually increase moisture. Precipitable water values are forecast to move upward from around 1.25 inches to nearly 2 inches by Monday.

There is little change in the pattern for several days as the upper ridge remains the main player. However, I’m still optimistic that we will see a substantial change to the pattern beginning in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. A strong upper trough scooting across southern Canada is expected to dig into the eastern half of the country as the upper ridge shifts westward over the Rockies. This trough is forecast to dig rather deeply into the eastern US by next Saturday. Supporting my optimism that this is going to happen is the consistency of the models from run to run along with the close agreement between the GFS and the ECMWF models. In fact, the ECMWF is actually a tad stronger on the strength of the trough than the GFS. The digging trough should bring a cold front down into the Ohio River Valley by Friday and into the Tennessee River Valley by Saturday. This pattern will drop temperatures back a little with highs in the 80s, not bad for very late June and early July. It should also bring a good chance for some widespread rain.

The GFS maintains the trough over the eastern US into week two, so this would definitely keep the heat in check as we get into early July. Yesterday, the 12Z GFS run presented with a significant Gulf storm. That feature is gone from the latest run, however, the GFS continued to show a good deal of shower development over the Gulf and southward, so we will keep an eye on conditions in the tropics.

Besides the small area of cloudiness and weak upper low on the Carolina coast, the tropics are quiet.

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I’ll be filling in this weekend for Ashley Brand, so be sure to catch the latest forecast on ABC 3340 at 6 and 10 this evening. I hope you have a good weekend. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather