Drier Air for Today and Monday

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If you want to be in the weather forecasting business, you will occasionally be humbled by the weather. Such was the case yesterday as showers were not nearly as numerous across Central Alabama as I expected. The likely cause was the pesky MCS that brought a good deal of clouds and rain to South Alabama and the Gulf Coast area. It’s presence most likely helped to cut off the deeper moisture up this way thus limiting showers to just a few.

Today we have another forecast challenge, and that is how much dry air will settle into Alabama along a weak frontal boundary that is sagging into the state. In the upper atmosphere, the closed low over the Great Lakes is beginning to pull northeast as a short wave trough moves around the base of the eastern US trough. The short wave was associated with a surface low spinning in the vicinity of Mobile this morning that should continue to move eastward. Showers should be limited across the northern half of Alabama as drier air as seen in dew points in the lower 60s continues to filter into our area. I do expect the best chances for showers to be across the southern half of Alabama. And look for the highs to come up into the mid and upper 80s for most locations in Central Alabama with a good supply of sunshine.

We should be dry once again on Monday with the drier air pretty much in place with the frontal boundary located between Birmingham and Montgomery. I would expect to see highs climb into the upper 80s for us with some spots getting to 90. Soil moisture will help to limit the afternoon highs a bit.

By Tuesday, the weakening upper closed low is in Southeast Canada with an upper ridge extending along the Gulf Coast. The upper flow becomes more zonal as the frontal boundary washes out, so this could be a fairly warm day with highs into the lower 90s and humidity levels coming up. While the air should be fairly dry, an isolated shower or two in the heat of the afternoon will be possible. There is a weak short wave depicted by the GFS in the vicinity of northern Arkansas Tuesday at midday, so we’ll need to be vigilant as to the potential for some sort of mesoscale convective system (MCS) riding with that disturbance. The upper flow becomes more northwesterly Wednesday and Thursday as another trough is carved out across the eastern US once again. This one does not appear to be quite as deep as the one we’ve just experienced. Impulses riding through the northwesterly flow will need to be watched for the development of any MCSs. Otherwise, it looks like diurnal shower chances with afternoon heating as the forecast once again becomes summer-like. Temperatures are likely to stay in the 88 to 92 range.

The trough over the eastern US weakens gradually as we head into the weekend, so not much change to the overall weather with daily shower chances and highs around 90 or so. A short wave trough moving through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley is likely to bring a front down into Kentucky, however, there does not appear to be enough of a push to bring it all the way to Alabama.

Beach weather was pretty wet yesterday and this morning, however, as the surface low moves eastward, showers should be more widely spaced with periods of sunshine. Highs should be in the middle 80s.

Dorian degenerated into a tropical wave yesterday, so NHC continues to watch the cloud mass that was the former tropical storm as it treks westward. It will bring rain to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, however, the environment remains somewhat hostile for any future development.

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I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am on Monday. We’ll be on a one-a-day schedule for the next week as James Spann takes a week off. I’ll be filling in for Ashley on ABC 3340 this evening, so be sure to catch the latest weather forecast at 5 and 10 pm. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather