Thunderstorms Continue

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The forecast is becoming a bit monotonous, but such is our summertime weather pattern with a moisture-rich atmosphere in place. We saw showers develop late yesterday morning and into the afternoon becoming the most numerous along and northwest of the I-59 corridor. Looks like a similar pattern today, but showers are possible across all of the area. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s with some spots reaching 90 to 91 degrees. Tuscaloosa hit 92 yesterday while the Birmingham observation only reached 88. Patchy fog was occurring in spots this morning – see the video for a great shot from Gadsden. Skywatcher Vic Bell also reported very low visibility at Black Creek.

Beach goers will see similar weather with daily chances for a passing shower and highs around 90 today and Monday.

The upper ridge is beginning to weaken. We see the weak upper cyclone in the Gulf has moved into Mexico, but the big news is what is happening upstream over the North Central US. A strong trough is forecast to deepen the trough over the eastern US once again, a pattern we’ve come to see a lot of this summer. By late Wednesday and Thursday, a surface front should be moving into the Southeast US which will provide an additional focus for showers and storms besides that of the heat of the day.

Isolated flash flooding remains an issue for the next couple of days since the daily thunderstorms are capable of producing large rainfall amounts in a short period of time. Fortunately, storms are waning overnight and we are not seeing as much training as we were seeing. With the presence of a front at midweek, we may need to watch the flash flood potential once again.

This is where the forecast becomes a little dicey. MOS guidance values indicate lowered humidity with dew points getting down into the lower and mid 60s – and that should feel good as compared to the lower 70s we’ve been experiencing. But the concern is that the trough axis stays along the Mississippi River, so we may still see some shower chances into the end of the week and the weekend. We should also see temperatures potentially back off into the middle 80s. That would be values about 5 to 7 degrees below the seasonal averages for middle August.

And looking into voodoo country, still no sign of any real heat as the upper air pattern is forecast to remain with a weakness over the eastern half of the country. Plus 500 millibar heights remain significantly lower than we usually see at this time of year.

Tropics are quiet. SPC has a slight risk area for the Upper Midwest for today and only a couple of locations for marginally severe weather on Day 2.

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James Spann should have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather