Rainy, Cool Saturday for Central Alabama

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Looks like a mostly cloudy, rainy, and cool-ish Saturday for Central Alabama. Quick look at radar shows a fairly large rain field across the northern two thirds of Alabama extending back into Central Mississippi. The challenge today will be accurately timing the end of the rain.

It is interesting to note that while there is no slight risk of severe storms with our current weather system, the NWS in Jackson, MS, issued several tornado warnings yesterday evening. While a very minimal threat, the upper air sounding yesterday evening did indicate a fairly good wind profile along with helicity and CAPE values marginally suitable for weak/brief spin ups. The overall look to the rain this morning is not impressive, however, the weak line could produce a brief tornado or two especially in the area to the east and south of Interstate 20 through the morning. Those favorable conditions will shift southeastward in the late morning and early afternoon. I do not expect to see any organized severe weather that would include a tornado watch, but we need to be vigilant for any short-lived spin ups.

Rainfall across Central Alabama is likely to be around an inch for most spots with some locations getting 1 to 2 inches in heavier showers. Because of the dry weather over the last couple of weeks, it is unlikely that flooding will become an issue. We will need to be watchful for isolated flash floorings with the heaviest downpours, but it does appear that showers will be moving through quickly enough to keep the risk small.

It appears likely the rain will be ending this afternoon from the northwest. Timing will be a challenge, but it appears rain should be ending at Birmingham and Tuscaloosa in the 3 to 4 pm time frame. This means rain for the start of the Samford and UAB games with the rain ending during the games.

Rain is likely for the tailgaters at Tuscaloosa, but the rain is expected to end before the Alabama/Colorado State begins at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00 pm CT kickoff). Temperatures will be in the 70s during the game.

For Auburn’s game at Baton Rouge against LSU (6:45p CT kickoff), we will need to keep a chance of rain in the forecast. Not sure it rains the entire game, but some rain sure looks likely. And, like Tuscaloosa, most of the day in Baton Rouge will be very wet.

The front is expected to slide into South Alabama this evening pushing the rain threat out of the area. The upper trough will move east of Alabama tonight and Sunday, so it appears that Sunday and Monday will be nice days here with highs back into the lower 80s as the upper ridge moves over us.

Another trough over the western US comes out Tuesday but the GFS is not indicating a very big return of moisture. I think we see rain chances Tuesday but with more scattered showers. That trough and the weak front move by us on Wednesday, and we return to dry weather for the rest of the week with lows in the 60s and highs in the lower to middle 80s, pretty close to typical for this time of year.

Tropics are fairly quiet with only a couple of areas being watched, neither of which is likely to develop into much during the next few days.

Looking out into voodoo country, the pattern remains active with a nice trough moving by during the first couple of days of October. The pattern settles somewhat after that into a near-zonal flow with a slight northwesterly component for perhaps a slightly cooler period.

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Great time hearing Jeanne Robertson at the Alabama Theater last night. It was an anniversary present to my wife and I to go hear her. We both enjoy storytelling, and her stories were interesting and humorous. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Enjoy the rain and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather