Challenging Week Ahead

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Wintry precipitation moved across northern Alabama this morning creating some travel issues across parts of northern Mississippi, Northwest Alabama, West and Middle Tennessee, and parts of South Central and Southeast Kentucky. In Alabama, most of the precipitation has been winding down during the last couple of hours and conditions should improve later this morning as temperatures rebound from the freezing mark into the lower 40s. We are likely to see some breaks in the clouds with a peek at the sun this afternoon with highs climbing into the lower and middle 50s. But the roller coaster ride in temperatures will keep us on our toes in the week ahead with another threat coming early Wednesday. And inconsistent model output does not help the confidence in the forecast after Monday.

The quickly moving shortwave responsible for the wintry mix this morning moves out today while another set of impulses or short waves enter the overall long wave trough position over the East. Good news is that it appears likely these disturbances will move by well to our north so we warm up nicely on Sunday before a dry cold front will be dragged into Alabama Monday with the significant cold air remaining to our north. The bad news is that the cold air gets very close according to the GFS while the European keeps it further north. For now, the GFS seems to have a better handle on the situation based on what we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks.

A more potent and closer short wave comes across the Mid Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday. The issue with this disturbance will be the exact timing and how much temperatures can get away from the freezing mark as precipitation begins. For now to be safe and lacking confidence due to model differences, I’m forecasting a possible wintry mix of precipitation to start the morning. With temperatures climbing, I do not expect the precipitation to be around long, however, there is some potential for this wintry mix to create an impact on morning commuters something similar to what we’re seeing this morning. Hopefully, future model runs will bring the system into a clearer focus as we approach that day.

A second short wave much further south than the one on Monday/Tuesday suggests a possible Gulf low according to the GFS. The European, on the other hand, does not develop much in the way of a Gulf low. The GFS seems to have been handling these systems a bit better than the European, so again the GFS seems to be a little better on solution. But it is definitely going to be a stay tuned situation to watch carefully.

After the short wave moves by early Thursday, the pattern of a trough over the eastern US lingers, but the main disturbances in the flow stay north of the Ohio River Valley keeping winter weather an issue for that area but allowing the Southeast to warm up somewhat.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS is advertising the idea of a nearly zonal flow around the 18th of February transitioning into western US trough with an eastern US ridge by the 23rd. This would signal a return to wet and warm conditions for the Southeast US as the western US trough taps Pacific moisture transporting that moisture across Mexico and into the

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

The Storm Alert Tour for 2014 kicked off with a great crowd in Gadsden despite the light snowfall which did not produce any serious problems. Our next stop is this coming Thursday at Calera High School in Shelby County. If you are in the area, be sure to come out for a special hour of weather information that is informative and interesting. The doors open at 5:00 pm and the ABC 3340 Weather Team will be there to chat with you before the program. I’ll have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather