Wet for Last Weekend of 2014

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The total annual rainfall at the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport stood at 46.97″ as of midnight, a value 6.10″ under the 30-year average for this location. Looks like the last weekend of 2014 will see the deficit reduced somewhat, maybe by as much as 3 inches or so. The NWS has issued a flash flood watch for the western two-thirds of Central Alabama from noon today until late Sunday night. As we’ve been mentioning, rainfall may be heavy with this rather slow moving system. Because it is slow moving, we are likely to get storms training over the same areas, so we could see heavy rain from embedded thunderstorms with precipitable water values climbing to around the 2 inch category. There is enough instability to support thunderstorms, but at this time it does not appear likely that we’ll see severe weather in the form of severe thunderstorms or tornadoes. Remember TADD, Turn Around Don’t Drown, and don’t drive into areas where water covers the roadway to unknown depth. About 75 percent of flash flood deaths are associated with vehicles. Temperatures will be fairly mild with highs today in the upper 50s and lower 60s by Sunday, despite the clouds and rain.

The strong upper storm system will finally move by the Southeast US on Monday bringing an end to the rain for us for the middle part of the week. With the long wave trough position situated to our west, we cool down but the colder air stays north of Central Alabama. Another closed low takes shape Wednesday over the Southwest US. That system does not kick out until the 2nd and 3rd of January, bringing us another round of wet weather for the first of 2015. Like this one, there will be some instability for thunderstorms, but not a high prospect for severe storms.

New Years Eve and New Years Day will be chilly with highs struggling to reach the 50 degree mark, but that’s only about 4 degrees below the 30-year average value for early January. As that next system approaches at the end of the week, we should see temperatures recover well into the 50s, perhaps verging on the 60-degree mark.

The longer range forecasts, commonly referred to here as voodoo country, keep an active pattern without any real extremes. There is a trough situated over the eastern half of the country around the 7th, but it does not appear to have a great deal of amplitude, so the colder air stays north of us. And by the 11th of January, the pattern becomes nearly zonal with embedded troughs or short waves moving through the zonal flow to keep us unsettled, so no sign of any really cold spells.

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I will be filling in for Meaghan Thomas this evening on the news at 6 and 10 pm on ABC 3340, so you can catch the latest forecast and updated weather information then. I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video on Sunday morning. Have a great day, stay dry, and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather