SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 422… 423…

SUMMARY…A threat for a few tornadoes will continue for the next few hours in WW 422 and WW 423. The greatest risk will exist in northern portions of Mississippi where the strongest forcing and most favorable low-level wind fields will overlap. Farther south, relative tornado risk will be lower. A new watch may be necessary across parts of Middle Tennessee, northern Alabama, and northeast Mississippi.

DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms within Tornado Watch 422 southern portions of Tornado Watch 423 have become more linearly organized over the past hour or two. The line of storms in northern Mississippi/western Tennessee is more organized/mature due to the stronger forcing for ascent relative to locations to the south/southwest. The tornado threat will be maximized in this area given the overlap of mid-level ascent and a stout 850 mb jet enlarging low-level hodographs for a few more hours. However, modest buoyancy profiles and storm mode will mitigate this risk to a degree. To the south, within Tornado Watch 422, storms have struggled to mature farther away from the better forcing to the north. However, continued theta-e advection into central Mississippi has maintained better instability. Surface observations have registered slight increases in temperature over the last hour. An expected modest increase in the low-level jet may help to better organize storms as they move into the region. Given dewpoints in the low 70s, at least some tornado threat will exist through about 08Z. Beyond that time frame, as the trough lifts to the northeast, storms over central Mississippi will generally weaken.

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