SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…Threat for damaging wind and isolated tornadoes is expected to develop eastward through southwest and central Alabama this morning into the afternoon. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW east of WW 0001.

DISCUSSION…As of mid morning a broken band of thunderstorms extends from extreme east central MS southwest into southeast LA. A few organized structures including bowing segments and embedded mini supercells persist within the line. Surface low will continue east through the TN Valley this afternoon with associated downstream strong low-level jet maintaining modest theta-e advection with low 60s dewpoints contributing to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. The band of convection will likely persist as it advances east within this zone of ascent and weak destabilization. VWP data show very impressive wind profiles with 60+ kt 0-6 km shear and large hodographs along the low-level jet corridor. This high shear/low cape environment will likely continue to support occasional embedded organized structures next several hours with damaging wind and isolated tornadoes the main threat.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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