SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 103…

SUMMARY…The severe threat area continues to diminish in size, with the most likely area of a damaging gust or brief tornado along coastal counties.

DISCUSSION…A line of thunderstorms continues to move quickly east across southern AL, associated with outflow from earlier storms over MS. The same general outflow boundary now extends southwestward into LA, merging with ongoing frontal convection. While the northern activity is likely to encounter drier and more stable air to the east, areas near the Gulf Coast will maintain 68-70 F dewpoints and sufficient instability for more substantial convection. However, outflow will continue to erode the air mass over land, with any wind or brief tornado threat most likely where winds have not shifted and air mass cooled. Area VWPs continue to indicate generally favorable hodograph structure with 50 kt midlevel flow and veering low-level winds with height (effective SRH around above 200 m2/s2).

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