SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Likely

SUMMARY…Severe — and possibly isolated tornado — risk is expected to increase over the next 1-2 hours, with watch issuance becoming increasingly likely over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION…Despite a plume of high-level cloud cover spreading east across the central Gulf Coast region, objective analysis shows that heating via filtered sunshine of the moist Gulf airmass across the discussion area is resulting in a gradually destabilizing environment, with mixed-layer CAPE now near 1500 J/kg. As a result, continued eastward advance of the fairly well-organized convective line crossing far eastern Louisiana is observed, with additional, pre-line cellular development also noted over southeast Mississippi. As modest additional destabilization supports further increases in storm coverage/intensity, the moderate west-southwest deep-layer wind field observed across the area should also help to sustain storm organization and some intensification over the next several hours. While flow is generally unidirectional/southwesterly across much of the region, suggesting that damaging outflow winds will be the main severe risk, some backing of the low-level flow is noted over southern portions of the area near the Gulf coast. Here, some enhancement to tornado potential is apparent — and indeed some rotation/small circulations have been observed at times within the convective band. As such, we will continue to monitor environmental and convective evolution, as it pertains to potential watch type.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions