SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Storms evolving over northeast Mississippi may pose local severe/brief tornado risk this afternoon.

DISCUSSION…Afternoon heating through broken cloud cover over the discussion area has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s locally over parts of northwest Alabama, where objective analysis shows an axis of 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Storms have continued to gradually increase near a weak frontal low over northeast Mississippi, and will spread northeast across northwest Alabama in the next couple of hours. Recent GWX (Columbus AFB) WSR-88D VWP reveals slightly stronger shear across this region than areas farther south, with mid-level west-southwesterlies near 50 kt. The enhanced shear appears to be contributing to updraft rotation evident with stronger cells across this area. While low-level shear remains weak — thus suggesting only brief tornado potential at best, risk for locally gusty/damaging winds would exist with any of the stronger updrafts, as storms spread into northwest Alabama and possibly southern Middle Tennessee over the next couple of hours.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions