SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Severe Thunderstorm Watch Likely

SUMMARY…A bow echo over southeastern AR is rapidly moving east at 55kt and will exit severe thunderstorm watch 405 around 11pm CDT. A new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed for MS, parts of western TN, and into northwest and north-central portions of AL.

DISCUSSION…Radar mosaic shows a bow echo over southeastern AR and a cluster of severe thunderstorms over central AR. The central AR cluster yielded gusts of 58kt at KLRF and 56kt at KLIT in the Little Rock metro. Strong west-southwesterly flow increasing with height will favor storm organization when combined with a moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the lower 70s) and moderate buoyancy. Expecting a continued risk for severe gusts (60-75kt) with the bow echo and severe gusts potentially affecting the greater Memphis area around 1am CDT. The highest potential and greatest concentration of severe gusts will likely focus with the mature bow echo as it rapidly moves into north-central MS during the late evening/early overnight period.

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